71 Miller Rd #6 · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Condo · 191 Days on market

Built 1965

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find your getaway! Located near Sylvan Lake in the beautiful Hudson Valley, this 1/2 duplex, 1 BR/1 BTH seasonal home is priced to sell and waiting for a buyer ready to renovate and make their own. Can be sold with other side of duplex (MLS # 408667) at $39,000 if purchased together. Birch Acres Co-Op is a private community of seasonal homes (Open Approximately April 15-October 15) that features a private setting, secure gated entry, beautiful inground pool, a great lawn, perennial gardens, playground, laundry area and a clubhouse where you can host parties or just enjoy some time with friends. Just minutes away is Sylvan Lake featuring fishing, canoeing, kayaking, and swimming. Nearby amenities include the Hudson River, Walkway over the Hudson, the Rail Trail, Appalachian trail, vineyards, fairgrounds, shopping, and restaurants. PLEASE NOTE: MAINTAINED FROM APRIL TILL END OF OCTOBER, BUT ACCESSIBLE YEAR-ROUND. THE MAIN WATER IS SHUT OFF DURING THE WINTER MONTHS.,AboveGrade:500,Level 1 Desc:1 BED, 1 BATH, KITCHEN, DINING ROOM, LIVING ROOM,,ASNFENCLDS:Insurance,Pool Service,Taxes,Accounting/Legal,Management,Level 2 Desc:N/A,FLOORING:Vinyl,Level 3 Desc:N/A,AMENITIES:Pool,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles

Key facts

• On site laundry
• Ample parking
• Perennial gardens

Tags

• SEASONAL DUPLEX COTTAGE
• PRIVATE SETTING
• PERENNIAL GARDENS
• ON SITE LAUNDRY
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by NYSEG; Other utilities — see remarks
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Partial attic; No basement
• Exterior features: Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms/living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $961 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Beekman School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 381 students, 21% FRL); Union Vale Middle School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 907 students, 21% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 4111% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $80k implies a 433% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.50%
• DSCR: 3.29
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $48,291
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $121,006
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Miller Rd Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	44d	3	0.02mi
71 Miller Rd #6 Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0	1.0	500	$1,900	$3.80	14d	1	0.03mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 698-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $80,000 Active 186 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $10,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,619
• After-tax cash flow: $8,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-90.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-10 Rental Removed $1,900 ONEKEY
• 2026-05-25 Listed for Rent $1,900 ONEKEY
• 2025-10-01 Listed $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Rental Removed $1,900 ONEKEY
• 2025-03-22 Listed for Rent $1,900 ONEKEY
• 2024-06-08 Rental Removed $1,900 ONEKEY
• 2024-03-09 Listed for Rent $1,900 ONEKEY
• 2022-06-17 Sold (MLS) $15,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-07 Listed $19,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid