10414 Peacock Hill Ave #16 · Gig Harbor, WA 98332

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Manufactured public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1986 $130/sqft · 41% below area Est $251k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Minutes from downtown Gig Harbor, this home is located in Hillcrest Manufactured Home Park, a 55+ community. This two-bedroom home offers 1,148 sq ft of living space. The entry opens into the living room featuring a cozy wood stove. Beyond that is a dining area connected to the open and bright kitchen. The primary bedroom features a large ensuite bath with a soaking tub. Lots of storage in the double closets. A second bedroom and a ¾ bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests. A dedicated laundry room opens to a pet run in the side yard. A heat pump provides AC for hot summer days. Space rent covers water, garbage, and septic. Very close to the popular shopping corridor - Tar

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Pet run
• Soaking tub

Tags

• WOOD STOVE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• ENSUITE BATH
• SOAKING TUB
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• PET RUN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 1.9% in Gig Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#177 in WA, #4,581 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Peninsula School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #21 of 291 in WA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Purdy Elementary School (484 students, 22% FRL); Harbor Ridge Middle School (596 students, 19% FRL); Peninsula High School (1,372 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.95%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,968
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -40.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $22,177
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $78,796
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98332

• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $497/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $813	-5% $770	+0% $728	+5% $686	+10% $644
Rent	-10% $567	-5% $648	+0% $728	+5% $809	+10% $890
Rate	-1.0pp $803	-0.5pp $766	base $728	+0.5pp $690	+1.0pp $650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3616 105th St NW Unit A Gig Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	19d	1	0.12mi
9216 Randall Dr NW Gig Harbor, WA	1.0	1.0	775	$1,645	$2.12	45d	1	0.81mi
11315 17th Avenue Ct NW Gig Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,700	$2.02	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $149,000
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2024-01-16
    soldstatus $132,000 Closed
18. 2023-12-15
    status Pending
19. 2023-12-08
    listed $135,000 Active
20. 2001-04-05
    soldstatus $30,000
21. 2000-12-03
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$963/yr (+$80/mo · 193.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$497
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $6,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,598
• After-tax cash flow: $7,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peninsula School District
• NCES district ID: 5306690
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,796
• Composite: 60.35/100
• National rank: #1718
• State rank: #21 of 291 in WA

Livability — Gig Harbor

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #4581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gig Harbor, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 47,845
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 20,072
• Household income: $135,330
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -638.13%
• Current HPI: 335.5178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+365.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $149,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $155,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-16 Sold (MLS) $132,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-08 Listed $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-04-05 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-03 Listed $32,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+42.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $497 · -58.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.