Shipton Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · SingleFamily · 207 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 206 days

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-693 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 4240 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,441 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,990
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -23.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 West Haymaker Rd	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,184 (+16%)	2mo	$389,990	$179	64
2020 Alder Ln	2.00mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-4%)	2mo	$329,990	$183	56
328 Country Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-13%)	1mo	$302,999	$186	55
2114 Rowan Dr	2.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,975 (+5%)	2mo	$338,990	$172	50
1204 Kade Ave	1.90mi	4/2.0	2,081 (+11%)	3mo	$339,000	$163	44
1310 Kade Ave	1.93mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-10%)	1mo	$338,000	$200	42
4508 Trevino Ln	2.22mi	2/2.0 (-2)	2,037 (+8%)	2mo	$474,990	$233	39
3908 Amethyst Dr	2.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-11%)	3mo	$349,990	$210	39
3207 Linden Ln	2.14mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+14%)	0mo	$369,990	$174	38
1316 Holmes St	1.93mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-13%)	0mo	$299,990	$184	38
1213 O'keefe Ave	1.92mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,146 (+14%)	1mo	$364,370	$170	33
1221 Corleone Ln	1.91mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,175 (+16%)	2mo	$399,590	$184	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-114,719
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-185,273
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 74.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $333,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 4240
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,412

Max offer price $289,719

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-423	-5% $-558	+0% $-693	+5% $-828	+10% $-962
Rent	-10% $-893	-5% $-793	+0% $-693	+5% $-593	+10% $-493
Rate	-1.0pp $-497	-0.5pp $-594	base $-693	+0.5pp $-794	+1.0pp $-897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 W Haymaker Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2184	$2,400	$1.10	12d	1	0.12mi
224 W Haymaker Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2184	$2,400	$1.10	0d	1	0.12mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $329,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named ShiptonLocated at 212 Cotton Way, Celina TX 75009

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,877 total living area listed)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $299,990 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $299,990 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 191 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 190 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 189 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 188 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 187 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 186 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 185 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 184 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 183 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 182 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 181 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 180 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 179 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 178 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 177 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 176 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    price $299,990 Active 175 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $329,990 Active 175 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $329,990 Active 174 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $329,990 Active 173 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 172 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 171 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 170 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 169 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $329,990 Active 168 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $329,990 Active 167 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $329,990 Active 166 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $329,990 Active 165 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $329,990 Active 164 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $329,990 Active 163 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $329,990 Active 162 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $329,990 Active 161 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $329,990 Active 160 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $329,990 Active 159 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $329,990 Active 158 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,433
• − Management: −$2,433
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$15,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,385–$28,155 screening

The Shipton home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. Minor updates such as painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and reduces energy costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $329,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named ShiptonLocated at 212 Cotton Way, Celina TX 75009

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,877 total living area listed)