10277 SE 158th Pl · The Villages, FL 34491

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · Land · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 0.34 ac lot $203/sqft · 433% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Beautifully upgraded home featuring stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry with soft-close hinges, and granite countertops in both the kitchen and baths. Enjoy tiled showers and bath surrounds, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, and a spacious two-car garage with automatic opener. Built with durable concrete block construction and enhanced by energy-efficient windows for long-term comfort and savings. Conveniently located near Lake Weir, The Villages, and Ocala, offering easy access to recreation, shopping, dining, and entertainment. Photos shown are of a spec home and may depict similar finishes.

Key facts

• Tiled showers
• Wood cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED SHOWERS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($627/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,382 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,677
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 433.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-39,752
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-30,896
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $127	+0% $52	+5% $-23	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-28	+0% $52	+5% $133	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $120	base $52	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	21d	1	0.42mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	14d	1	0.43mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	0.80mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,440	$1.18	21d	1	0.81mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	21d	2	0.83mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	14d	1	0.85mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	21d	1	1.19mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	21d	1	1.30mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	21d	1	1.42mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $265,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-02-02
    listed $265,000 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Under Construction. Beautifully upgraded home featuring stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry with soft-close hinges, and granite countertops in both the kitchen and baths. Enjoy tiled showers and bath surrounds, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, and a spacious two-car garage with automatic opener. Built with durable concrete block construction and enhanced by energy-efficient windows for long-term comfort and savings. Conveniently located near Lake Weir, The Villages, and Ocala, offering easy access to recreation, shopping, dining, and entertainment. Photos shown are of a spec home and may depict similar finishes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,547/yr (+$129/mo · 237.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$967
• After-tax cash flow: $1,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+104.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $652 · +104.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.