The Fallow Plan · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$243,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,917 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage-ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a centrally located full bathroom and upstairs laundry add everyday convenience. With its thoughtful layout and ample living space, the Fallow floorplan is designed to adapt to your lifestyle. Contact us to find your home in Overlook West!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 131 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $141,957
• Equity at exit: $219,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $411,001
• Equity at exit: $474,019

Cash invested: $68,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,660/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $243,990

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $226	+0% $142	+5% $58	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $51	+0% $142	+5% $233	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $204	base $142	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,998
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.04mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	22d	1	0.46mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	22d	1	0.60mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	15d	1	1.10mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	15d	1	1.12mi
2915 Tractor Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2582	$2,995	$1.16	15d	1	1.28mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	22d	1	1.40mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	45d	1	1.42mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	22d	1	1.45mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	15d	1	1.49mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $243,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,990 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,990 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,990 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,990 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,990 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $243,990 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,990 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,990 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $243,990 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $243,990 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,990 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,990 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,990 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,990 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $243,990 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-02-25
    price $243,990 888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (888 chars)

    The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage-ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a centrally located full bathroom and upstairs laundry add everyday convenience. With its thoughtful layout and ample living space, the Fallow floorplan is designed to adapt to your lifestyle. Contact us to find your home in Overlook West!

18. 2026-02-10
    listed $253,990 Active 888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (888 chars)

    The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage-ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a centrally located full bathroom and upstairs laundry add everyday convenience. With its thoughtful layout and ample living space, the Fallow floorplan is designed to adapt to your lifestyle. Contact us to find your home in Overlook West!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,667
• − Property taxes: −$3,660
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$2,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $2,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Fallow Plan is a well-maintained, move-in-ready two-story home with a spacious floor plan and modern finishes. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology enhances convenience and adds value to the property.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology enhances convenience and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Listed $253,990 Zillow