Is 11350 Sarah Jane Ln #66 in Prescott Valley, AZ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 6.2% cap rate and $-24/mo modeled cash flow at a $202,700 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 11350 Sarah Jane Ln #66?

The modeled cap rate is 6.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,743/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C- Composite 50.33

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +13.8/30.0
DSCR +4.4/10.0
1% rule +4.3/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.2/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$202,700

11350 Sarah Jane Ln #66 · Prescott Valley, AZ 86327

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 2022 Good condition $151/sqft · 40% below area Est $340k · 40% under ↓ 14% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

55+ Community in the highly sought after Orchard Ranch NORTH Community. LIKE NEW! A beauty of its own. Nice outside front porch with a gorgeous view. Kitchen has a island and stainless steel appliances. Lots of storage cabinets in the kitchen and dining room. Luxury Vinyl plank flooring throughout the house. Large Master Bedroom w/ walk in closet & Shower in Master bath. Guest Bath shower over tub. Guest bedroom or office. Fenced in side patio & back yard. Large shed with overhead storage.

Key facts

Outside front porch
Gorgeous view
Storage cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-287/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (1.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (14.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $174k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Prescott Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#126 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Liberty Traditional School (math 56% / reading 53%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 785 students, 39% FRL); Bradshaw Mountain Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 280 students, 55% FRL); Bradshaw Mountain High School (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #222 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 1,697 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 405 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $174,290 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.86% ✗
Cap rate: 6.15%
Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
DSCR: 0.98
GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $340,017
List price: $202,700
Delta: -40.39%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11250 E State Route 69 #2123	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$190,000	$141	88
11250 E State Route 69 #1125	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	5mo	$130,000	$104	72
2142 Jackrabbit Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	5mo	$185,000	$134	64
2146 Jackrabbit Dr #2146	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$175,000	$120	59
11250 E State Route 69 Unit 1128-2	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,174 (-13%)	10mo	$150,000	$128	58
10833 E Oxbow Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+3%)	4mo	$375,000	$270	53
11250 E State Route 69 1152	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-12%)	17mo	$130,000	$110	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -17.1%
Equity multiple: 0.39×
Total profit: $-34,343
Equity at exit: $30,223

10-year hold

IRR: -9.0%
Equity multiple: 0.44×
Total profit: $-31,761
Equity at exit: $17,526

Cash invested: $56,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 20 active · 12 under contract
Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $213,900 ($158/sqft)
Median days on market: 81 d
This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +60.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86327

Home prices YoY: -11.8%
Active inventory: 405
Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,743 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,063
Tax est. 1.5%: −$253 /mo · $3,040/yr
Insurance: −$84
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,773

Max offer price $199,238

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $46	+0% $-24	+5% $-94	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-93	+0% $-24	+5% $45	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $28	base $-24	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $50,675
Closing costs: $6,081
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1298 Tapadero Dr Unit A Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,750	$1.54	162d	1	0.72mi
1195 N Buena Vista E Dewey, AZ	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,100	$1.24	10d	1	0.76mi
1131 Tapadero Dr Dewey, AZ	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,695	$1.07	184d	1	0.84mi
1145 Tapadero Dr Unit B-6 Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,500	$1.16	7d	1	0.84mi
11522 E Wingfoot Ct Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	51d	1	0.91mi
11501 E Wingfoot Ct Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.5	1467	$2,200	$1.50	10d	1	0.94mi
962 Fairway Dr #40 Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	7d	1	1.02mi
1251 Barzona Ave #2 Dewey, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,745	$1.39	184d	1	1.04mi
11045 E Turquoise Cir Dewey, AZ	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,995	$1.15	2d	1	1.06mi
1200 Barzona Ave #1 Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,715	$1.40	41d	1	1.10mi
1200 Barzona Ave #1 Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,715	$1.40	38d	1	1.10mi
1200 Barzona Ave #1 Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,715	$1.40	45d	1	1.10mi
11938 Arabian Ln Unit C Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	1d	1	1.11mi
887 N Cochise Dr Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1544	$1,625	$1.05	162d	1	1.13mi
959 N Old Chisholm Trl Apt 01 Dewey, AZ	1.0	2.0	960	$1,175	$1.22	184d	1	1.13mi
927 N Old Chisholm Trl Unit C Dewey, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	51d	1	1.16mi
873 N Old Chisholm Trl Unit A Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	184d	1	1.21mi
11286 E Western Sunset Dr Dewey, AZ	2.0	1.5	1364	$1,827	$1.34	41d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity clubhouse, fitness center, spa/hot tub, pool, meeting room, game/hobby room, and community kitchenMembership requiredLand lease

Exterior

Parking: 2 attached carport spacesRV parking details available upon request
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Private waterPrivate sewerElectricity available220-volt electrical serviceElectric water heaterCable available
Home design: Manufactured homeDouble-wide
Construction: Frame constructionComposition roofSlab foundationDouble-pane windowsSolar screensScreensWood-slat window features
Exterior features: Front and rear landscapingConcrete drivewayPatioLevel and gently sloped terrain with valley views

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigeratorRangeElectric rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Flooring: Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms: 1 full and 1 three-quarter
Heating & cooling: Electric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
Interior features: Ceiling fansHigh ceilingsWalk-in closetOne-level livingKitchen islandEat-in kitchenCombined kitchen and dining areaLaminate countersDownstairs primary bedroomLaundry connections
Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry room

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $202,700 Active 18 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $202,700 Active 17 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $202,700 Active 16 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $202,700 Active 15 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $202,700 Active 14 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $202,700 Active 12 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $202,700 Active 11 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $202,700 Active 10 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $202,700 Active 9 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $202,700 Active 8 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $202,700 Active 7 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $202,700 Active 6 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $202,700 Active 5 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $202,700 Active 4 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $202,700 Active 3 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $202,700 Active 2 DOM
2026-10-21

days on marketlisting id $202,700 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $202,700 Active 172 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $202,700 Active 171 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $202,700 Active 170 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $202,700 Active 169 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $202,700 Active 163 DOM
2026-09-04

price $202,700 Active 162 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $219,900 Active 162 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $219,900 Active 161 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $219,900 Active 158 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $219,900 Active 157 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $219,900 Active 156 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $219,900 Active 155 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $219,900 Active 154 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $219,900 Active 153 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $219,900 Active 152 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $219,900 Active 151 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $219,900 Active 150 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $219,900 Active 149 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $219,900 Active 148 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $219,900 Active 147 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $219,900 Active 146 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $219,900 Active 145 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $219,900 Active 144 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $219,900 Active 143 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $219,900 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $219,900 Active 141 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $219,900 Active 140 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $219,900 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $219,900 Active 138 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $219,900 Active 137 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $219,900 Active 136 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $219,900 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $219,900 Active 134 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,915
− Mortgage interest: −$11,354
− Property taxes: −$3,040
− Insurance: −$1,014
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
− Management: −$1,673
− Depreciation: −$5,897
Taxable loss: −$3,737

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$897
After-tax cash flow: $610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and adding a small outdoor seating area.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Increases functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Humboldt Elementary School F AZ #339/1,109 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Bradshaw Mountain Middle School F AZ #78/218 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Bradshaw Mountain High School F AZ #222/381 Nat'l #13,991/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Humboldt Unified District (4469)
NCES district ID: 0403870
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -14.00%
Median HH income: $45,326
Composite: 29.06/100
National rank: #6605
State rank: #94 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Prescott Valley

Score: 62/100
State rank: #126
US rank: #16160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Prescott Valley, AZ
County: Yavapai County · 241,389 people
City population: 63,155
Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
Population (ZIP): 12,154
Household income: $71,512
Rent vs Own: 9.0% rent · 91.0% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 241,389 people
By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
Current HPI: 320.6301
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	2	$13B
#417 ON Semiconductor Scottsdale $7.1B #467 Resideo Technologies Scottsdale $6.1B
Mining / Metals	1	$23B
#174 Freeport-McMoRan Phoenix $23.4B
Environmental Services	1	$16B
#209 Republic Services Phoenix $15.9B
Metals / Steel	1	$14B
#471 Reliance Steel & Aluminum Scottsdale $14.0B
Technology Distribution	1	$9B
#363 Insight Enterprises Chandler $9.4B
Homebuilding	1	$8B
#424 Taylor Morrison Scottsdale $7.7B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-10-21 Listed $202,700 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-09-14 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-09-04 Price Changed $202,700 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-05-08 Price Changed $219,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-03-26 Listed $235,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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