15826 Shoreline Terrace Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2006 3,868 sqft lot Est $406k · 26% under $67/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the serene Lakeshore Subdivision, this home offers an array of amenities including a pool, splash pad, playground, workout room, party room, and tennis/pickleball courts. The spacious bedrooms feature ample closet space, while the kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a gas stove, and tile flooring. The primary bedroom on the main floor includes a walk-in closet, wood floors, and a luxurious ensuite with double sinks, separate shower, and garden tub. Upstairs, a game room accompanies three additional large bedrooms with walk-in closets and a jack and jill bathroom. The family room features a cozy fireplace, wood floors, and there is a formal dining room with wood floors as well. Woo

Key facts

• Workout room
• Tennis courts
• Splash pad

Tags

• POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• PLAYGROUND
• WORKOUT ROOM
• PARTY ROOM
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee of $800 (covers common areas and recreation facilities); Community amenities include fitness center, playground, pickleball, park, pool, and trash service; Community features include community pool and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Association pool; Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 17x13); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 16x12, 13x12, 12x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Double vanity; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments / coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeshore El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 48% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12919 Palm Leaf Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,863 (-7%)	3mo	$229,900	$80	82
13103 Six Rivers Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	3,043 (-1%)	1mo	$479,000	$157	75
12923 Pecan Shores Dr	0.10mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,777 (-10%)	0mo	$319,995	$115	74
16007 Angler Bend Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,674 (-13%)	5mo	$349,786	$131	64
15915 Angler Bend Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,710 (-12%)	5mo	$315,000	$116	63
13235 Barkley Bend Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,828 (-8%)	5mo	$475,000	$168	61
13211 Offshore Dr	0.51mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,397 (+10%)	0mo	$535,000	$157	48
16334 Gentle Slope Ln	0.49mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,412 (+11%)	3mo	$450,000	$132	46
13018 Foxwood Creek Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,784 (-10%)	6mo	$290,000	$104	44
16706 Hemlock Grove Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	3,536 (+15%)	2mo	$584,900	$165	43
12919 Leolyn Woods Ln	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,438 (+12%)	0mo	$475,000	$138	42
15615 Tindary Meadow Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,673 (-13%)	2mo	$350,000	$131	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-30,870
• Equity at exit: $64,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-27,492
• Equity at exit: $60,380

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$667 /mo · $8,002/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,078

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.70mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,716	$1.02	5d	1	0.71mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	1d	1	0.79mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	3d	1	0.87mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.87mi
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	24d	1	0.94mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,976	$1.12	5d	1	1.11mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	24d	1	1.24mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,002 · $667/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,002 · $667/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$8,002
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,066
• − Management: −$3,066
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$3,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+87.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2020-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-05-20 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-05-17 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2015-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-01-29 Listed $159,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,002 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.