4123 SW 15th Pl #2 · Gainesville, FL 32607

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Condo public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1981 $350/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

6 Minutes to UF – 2025 Roof – Private Backyard! This inviting 2BR/1.5BA townhome is the perfect Gainesville gateway. Enjoy a bright, open floor plan with a large kitchen and a private, fenced-in backyard with a covered patio. Features include: Recent Updates: New roof (2025) and newer HVAC. Layout: Two stories with both bedrooms upstairs; primary includes a private balcony. Convenience: Upstairs laundry hookups and designated parking. Location: Minutes from UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA , Shands Hospital, and local parks/dining. Don’t miss this move-in-ready opportunity in a central location!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Private balcony
• Covered patio

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• DESIGNATED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($960/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Littlewood Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 706 students, 48% FRL); Kanapaha Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-19,694
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-25,178
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32607

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,038/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,589

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $117	+0% $80	+5% $43	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $13	+0% $80	+5% $147	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $113	base $80	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4781 SW 36th Rd Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,340	$2.06	15d	61	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-02-13
    listed $129,900 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    6 Minutes to UF – 2025 Roof – Private Backyard! This inviting 2BR/1.5BA townhome is the perfect Gainesville gateway. Enjoy a bright, open floor plan with a large kitchen and a private, fenced-in backyard with a covered patio. Features include: Recent Updates: New roof (2025) and newer HVAC. Layout: Two stories with both bedrooms upstairs; primary includes a private balcony. Convenience: Upstairs laundry hookups and designated parking. Location: Minutes from UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA , Shands Hospital, and local parks/dining. Don’t miss this move-in-ready opportunity in a central location!

19. 2022-11-17
    soldstatus $115,000
20. 1996-10-09
    soldstatus $29,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,038
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$218
• After-tax cash flow: $1,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $45,987
• Rent vs Own: 66.0% rent · 34.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3418.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.86%
• Current HPI: 270.183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+335.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $29,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,038 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.