Avery Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$294,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,797 sqft · SingleFamily · 514 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Key facts

• Relaxing lanai
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• INVITING KITCHEN AREA
• DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• DOUBLE VANITY SINKS
• RELAXING LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $294,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Avery plan); Address: 5228 Bellbrooke Pkwy, Jacksonville, FL 32234
• Construction: New construction (Plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,797

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Avery (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,866.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 514 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,286 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 514 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,866
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14376 Creekbluff Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,797 (0%)	5mo	$310,000	$173	86
14328 Creekbluff Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,797 (0%)	7mo	$316,990	$176	86
14341 Creekbluff Way	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,797 (0%)	12mo	$319,990	$178	83
5110 Conference Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-5%)	1mo	$303,990	$178	77
14346 Creekbluff Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-5%)	9mo	$321,500	$188	72
14335 Creekbluff Way	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-5%)	11mo	$345,000	$202	70
5155 Bellbrooke Pkwy	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,003 (+12%)	13mo	$340,000	$170	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-24,896
• Equity at exit: $100,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-553
• Equity at exit: $126,341

Cash invested: $89,562 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,677
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,798/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,798

Max offer price $268,965

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-241	+0% $-352	+5% $-462	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-538	-5% $-445	+0% $-352	+5% $-259	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-270	base $-352	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,966
• Closing costs: $9,596
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 514 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 511 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 510 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 509 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 508 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,990 Active 502 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 501 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $294,990 Active 496 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $294,990 Active 495 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 494 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 493 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,917
• − Property taxes: −$4,798
• − Insurance: −$1,599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − Depreciation: −$9,305
• Taxable loss: −$9,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B