4950 Key Deer Ave · Alturas, FL 33859

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Land · 158 Days on market

Built 2025 1.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Financing Terms: Owner Financing Available $50,000 Down (50%) Contract for Deed Seller retains title until paid in full Property sold AS-IS Proof of funds for down payment required Property Details: Approx. 780 sq ft 1.16 acres + additional adjacent lot included (2 parcels total) Single-family residence Concrete foundation Construction Status: Rough electrical & plumbing completed Interior partitions completed Septic installed Electric pole on property HVAC not installed Well not installed Permits will need to be reopened (straightforward process) Buyer Responsibilities: Finish construction Reopen permit and complete home Handle inspection w/ code compliance Ideal Buyer B

Key facts

• 1.16 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 158 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial or community amenities available
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: House; Living area approximately 780
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: 1.16-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Bedroom count not provided
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Bathroom count not provided
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: No interior details available
• Laundry & utility: Laundry and utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#678 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frostproof Ben Hill Griffin Jr Elementary School (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 917 students, 66% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $105k implies a 577% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.62%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $26,032
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $77,973
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33859

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $216/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $736	-5% $706	+0% $677	+5% $527	+10% $491
Rent	-10% $548	-5% $612	+0% $677	+5% $741	+10% $805
Rate	-1.0pp $729	-0.5pp $703	base $677	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $105,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-01-14
    listed $105,000 Active
16. 2020-08-11
    soldstatus $15,500
17. 2020-07-06
    soldstatus $15,000
18. 2000-03-08
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $216 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$655/yr (+$55/mo · 303.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$216
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $6,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $6,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alturas

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #678
• US rank: #14100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alturas, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,824
• Household income: $57,760
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.19%
• Current HPI: 267.4537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $105,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2020-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2020-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $216 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.