4015 Bakers Ferry Rd SW · Atlanta, GA 30331

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1966 9,709 sqft lot Est $229k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

Key facts

• 9,709 sq ft lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.1% in Atlanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in GA, #919 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Atlanta Public Schools (urban): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #80 of 174 in GA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Miles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #996 of 1,228 statewide, top 83%, 516 students, 100% FRL); Jean Childs Young Middle School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #449 of 470 statewide, top 97%, 747 students, 100% FRL); Benjamin E. Mays High School (math 22% / reading 15%, grade F, #254 of 424 statewide, top 61%, 1,337 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 71% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Atlanta Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 483 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $150k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.75%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
583 Tarragon Ct SW	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,507 (-1%)	4mo	$225,000	$149	79
273 Fennel Way SW	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-3%)	6mo	$200,000	$136	78
410 Tarragon Way SW	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	10mo	$210,000	$140	76
3897 Ester Dr SW	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+2%)	9mo	$232,000	$149	74
587 Tarragon Way SW	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	4mo	$239,000	$164	73
354 Tarragon Way SW	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-14%)	12mo	$280,000	$214	55
344 Woodstock Dr SW	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (+5%)	10mo	$305,000	$191	50
3729 Wisteria Ln SW	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,450 (-5%)	12mo	$143,000	$99	48
3888 Boulder Park Dr SW	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+8%)	7mo	$380,000	$230	47
225 Fairburn Rd SW	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (+11%)	2mo	$80,000	$47	41
569 Oakside Dr SW	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,750 (+15%)	12mo	$303,000	$173	38
3927 Boulder Park Dr SW	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,302 (-15%)	5mo	$195,000	$150	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,850
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $46,247
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30331

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 483
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $983/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4172 Renfrew Ct SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	1136	$1,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.11mi
350 Fennel Way SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	21d	1	0.12mi
40 Candlelight Ln SW Unit A Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,500	$1.37	24d	1	0.16mi
40 Candlelight Ln SW Apt B Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	1274	$1,800	$1.41	24d	1	0.16mi
3915 Basil Way SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1287	$2,600	$2.02	24d	1	0.22mi
440 Dartmouth Dr SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.0	1148	$1,795	$1.56	21d	1	0.33mi
586 Oakside Dr SW Unit B Atlanta, GA	2.0	1.0	1075	$1,065	$0.99	15d	1	0.40mi
586 Oakside Dr SW Unit A Atlanta, GA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,325	$1.23	15d	1	0.40mi
3919 Wisteria Ln SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	1126	$1,730	$1.54	14d	1	0.54mi
95 Howell Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,840	$1.00	14d	1	0.88mi
87 Howell Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,700	$1.47	24d	1	0.88mi
415 Fairburn Rd SW Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,490	$1.67	2d	31	0.89mi
494 Plainville Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,400	$1.53	24d	1	0.96mi
470 Bolton Rd NW Unit D1 Atlanta, GA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,395	$1.27	24d	1	0.99mi
841 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1344	$1,895	$1.41	17d	1	1.07mi
755 Crestwell Cir SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1546	$1,800	$1.16	24d	1	1.08mi
451 Fairlock Ln NW Atlanta, GA	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,450	$1.27	24d	1	1.08mi
832 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,250	$1.50	24d	1	1.09mi
887 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,250	$1.67	24d	1	1.12mi
722 Crestwell Cir #722 Atlanta, GA	2.0	3.0	1440	$2,279	$1.58	21d	1	1.12mi
900 Society Cir SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.5	1710	$2,500	$1.46	24d	1	1.13mi
897 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,155	$1.44	24d	1	1.14mi
708 Crestwell Cir SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1236	$1,645	$1.33	24d	1	1.15mi
778 Nehemiah Ln SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1576	$1,950	$1.24	24d	1	1.17mi
648 Providence Pl SW #37 Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1416	$2,195	$1.55	24d	1	1.19mi
3590 Collier Dr NW Atlanta, GA	4.0	4.0	1110	$1,100	$0.99	11d	1	1.20mi
658 Providence Pl SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1571	$2,100	$1.34	24d	1	1.21mi
3354 Delmar Ln NW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	1.23mi
975 Society Cir SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.5	1700	$2,350	$1.38	2d	1	1.25mi
513 Constellation Overlook SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1446	$2,300	$1.59	24d	1	1.30mi
206 Harwell Rd NW Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,023	$1.01	21d	1	1.32mi
3616 Utoy Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1496	$1,950	$1.30	44d	1	1.34mi
4341 Cascade Rd SW Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,535	$1.60	44d	1	1.47mi
751 Fairburn Rd SW Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$2,170	$1.87	3d	32	1.48mi
4355 Cascade Rd SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,190	$1.03	2d	7	1.48mi
3537 Fairburn Pl NW Atlanta, GA	2.0	1.0	1484	$2,000	$1.35	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Under Contract 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

2. 2026-03-17
   status Back On Market 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

3. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-28
   historical On Hold 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

5. 2026-02-17
   status Back On Market 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

6. 2026-01-23
   status Active
7. 2026-01-07
   status Pending Offer Approval 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

8. 2026-01-06
   status Back On Market 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

9. 2026-01-06
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

10. 2025-11-21
    status Under Contract 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

11. 2025-11-17
    status Pending
12. 2025-10-27
    status Back On Market 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

13. 2025-10-27
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

14. 2025-10-21
    historical Active Under Contract 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

15. 2025-10-21
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

16. 2025-09-15
    listed $150,000 New 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

17. 2025-09-15
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest, finish cosmetic work, and make it yours! Go and View. Only time to view . AS-IS No disclosure.

18. 2025-07-07
    status Back On Market
19. 2025-04-06
    status Pending
20. 2025-04-06
    status Under Contract
21. 2025-04-05
    historical On Hold
22. 2025-03-20
    listed $150,000 New
23. 2025-03-20
    listed $150,000 Active
24. 2010-03-30
    soldstatus $75,000
25. 2008-11-21
    soldstatus $37,900
26. 2008-07-14
    listed $39,900
27. 2004-02-18
    soldstatus $130,000
28. 1978-04-10
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥103°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$983
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$952
• After-tax cash flow: $5,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlanta Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1300120
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,306
• Composite: 27.27/100
• National rank: #7006
• State rank: #80 of 174 in GA

Livability — Atlanta

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #919

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlanta, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 629,525
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 62,567
• Household income: $62,623
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3748.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.38%
• Current HPI: 204.5402
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+383.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-02-28 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-11-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — FMLS
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-10-21 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2025-10-21 Contingent — FMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $150,000 FMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $150,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-07 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-04-06 Pending — FMLS
• 2025-04-06 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-04-05 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $150,000 FMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $150,000 GAMLS
• 2010-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-21 Sold (MLS) $37,900 FMLS
• 2008-07-14 Listed $39,900 FMLS
• 2004-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1978-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $983 · -21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.