59 Deer Haven Ln · Gardiner, NY 12525

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 2008 Fair condition $590/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Deer Haven, a small community of manufactured homes. Located in Gardiner, a very desirable town in the Hudson Valley, and within the New Paltz School district. The house is a nice size with three bedrooms and 2 full baths, on a small but nice lot that has room for some outdoor living in the backyard. Though it is in need of some attention, it could be a good starter home in a lovely part of the Shawangunk Ridge area. Monthly rent fee is 590. that includes water & Sewer. This is an Estate sale and the property will be sold in ''as is'' condition. Please views photos

Key facts

• Shawangunk ridge
• Hudson valley
• Outdoor living

Tags

• HUDSON VALLEY
• NEW PALTZ SCHOOL DISTRICT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• SHAWANGUNK RIDGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee of $590 (includes water and sewer); described as lot rent

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; No carport
• Utilities: Shared septic; Water connected; Electricity connected; Propane available; Cable available
• Home design: Mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl-sided construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($996/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.1% in Gardiner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#728 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• New Paltz Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #70 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Duzine School (317 students, 27% FRL); New Paltz Middle School (math 24% / reading 74%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 421 students, 28% FRL); New Paltz Senior High School (math 97% / reading 100%, grade A+, #10 of 1,100 statewide, top 1%, 668 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-13,769
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,596
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12525

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$590
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $590 · $7,080/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 605-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $120,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − HOA: −$7,080
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $1,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including painting, landscaping, and exterior siding repairs. However, with these updates, it can become a move-in-ready home with increased resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — The exterior siding appears weathered and faded, with visible discoloration and peeling.
• Major Paint — The interior and exterior walls and ceilings appear to be in fair condition, but the paint could benefit from a fresh coat.
• Major Flooring — The flooring in the living areas appears to be in fair condition, but the carpet could benefit from a cleaning and possibly some repairs.
• Major Landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and needs trimming.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting the exterior and interior walls and ceilings — Painting the exterior and interior walls and ceilings can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Landscaping and trimming the overgrown grass — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Repainting the exterior siding — Repainting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · The exterior siding appears weathered and faded, with visible discoloration and peeling.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · The interior and exterior walls and ceilings appear to be in fair condition, but the paint could benefit from a fresh coat.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · The flooring in the living areas appears to be in fair condition, but the carpet could benefit from a cleaning and possibly some repairs.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and needs trimming.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting the exterior and interior walls and ceilings — Painting the exterior and interior walls and ceilings can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and trimming the overgrown grass — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Repainting the exterior siding — Repainting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Paltz Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620460
• Math proficiency: 67% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 88% ▲ 28.00%
• Median HH income: $68,223
• Composite: 67.25/100
• National rank: #386
• State rank: #70 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gardiner

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #728
• US rank: #13948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,710

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.51%
• Current HPI: 294.4045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $120,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid