103 4th Ave NE · Crosby, ND 58730

$175,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Other public records · 182 Days on market

Built 2013 5,596 sqft lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Turnkey modular home
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• TURNKEY MODULAR HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ATTACHED FINISHED GARAGE
• QUIET STREET
• ONE BLOCK FROM MAIN STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#63 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Divide County 1 (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #121 of 169 in ND (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Divide County population projected at +85% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,027 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $12,281
• Equity at exit: $78,688

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $56,016
• Equity at exit: $121,267

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58730

• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,808/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,445

Max offer price $150,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-88	+0% $-138	+5% $-187	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-188	+0% $-138	+5% $-88	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-93	base $-138	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-28
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2025-09-23
   price $175,000
4. 2025-07-16
   price $189,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,808 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,808 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,808
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,145
• After-tax cash flow: $-508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Divide County 1
• NCES district ID: 3805160
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,720
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #10182
• State rank: #121 of 169 in ND

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #7199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosby, ND
• Population (ZIP): 1,369

Population outlook (Divide County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,235 people
• By 2030: 3,697 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 4,763 · +47.2%
• By 2050: 5,975 · +84.7%
• By 2075: 9,534 · +194.7%
• By 2100: 12,784 · +295.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 36% Slovak 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Divide

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 21.2% · R 76.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GNMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $175,000 GNMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $175,000 GNMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $189,000 GNMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,808 · -24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.