15305 Bellflower Ln · Urbandale, IA 50323

$329,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,787 sqft · Other · 121 Days on market

Built 2026 2,511 sqft lot $184/sqft · at area comps Est $333k · at est. $175/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Waterford Creek South Townhomes with a modern feel and large windows for an abundance of natural light. Open kitchen with white cabinetry with snack bar, quartz countertops, pantry, and Stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen opens to the dining area, deck and great room to make this perfect for entertaining. Upstairs you'll find a Loft perfect for a reading nook, play area, or office space. Upstairs is also the master bedroom with an en suite bath & walk-in closet, 2 additional bedrooms, 2nd floor laundry and another full bath complete the upstairs. The finished basement features a family room, 4th bedroom, and a full bathroom. * * * * Purchase includes: Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator, Stove, Microwave and Dishwasher. * * * *

Key facts

• Large windows
• Pantry
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-703 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hills Elementary School (math 91% / reading 81%, grade A+, #26 of 616 statewide, top 4%, 625 students, 9% FRL); Waukee Middle School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #22 of 246 statewide, top 12%, 1,069 students, 12% FRL); Waukee High School (math 74% / reading 82%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 1,268 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $329k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $220,992 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.16%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,378
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -1.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $27,602
• Equity at exit: $182,603

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $124,215
• Equity at exit: $312,021

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50323

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-703

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,100

Max offer price $227,303

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-475	-5% $-589	+0% $-703	+5% $-816	+10% $-930
Rent	-10% $-877	-5% $-790	+0% $-703	+5% $-616	+10% $-528
Rate	-1.0pp $-537	-0.5pp $-619	base $-703	+0.5pp $-788	+1.0pp $-875

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5440 154th Ct Urbandale, IA	4.0	3.5	2367	$2,200	$0.93	21d	1	0.07mi
15133 Foxglove Ln Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1529	$2,350	$1.54	16d	1	0.08mi
5437 155th St Urbandale, IA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1590	$2,096	$1.32	16d	8	0.12mi
15118 Deerview Dr Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,195	$1.37	45d	1	0.19mi
5506 144th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1575	$1,875	$1.19	45d	1	0.48mi
16008 Springbrook Trl Urbandale, IA	5.0	3.0	1670	$2,900	$1.74	45d	1	0.54mi
14420 Springbrook Trl Grimes, IA	3.0	2.5	1575	$1,950	$1.24	16d	1	0.67mi
4307 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,850	$1.28	25d	1	1.26mi
16605 Oakwood Dr Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	1.27mi
4735 NW 167th St Waukee, IA	3.0	3.0	1557	$2,300	$1.48	45d	1	1.29mi
4736 167th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1585	$2,296	$1.45	16d	1	1.30mi
4454 142nd St Urbandale, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,384	$1.46	16d	6	1.40mi
4743 170th Pl Waukee, IA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,050	$1.36	16d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $329,000 Pending 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $329,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-02-09
    listed $329,000 Active 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Waterford Creek South Townhomes with a modern feel and large windows for an abundance of natural light. Open kitchen with white cabinetry with snack bar, quartz countertops, pantry, and Stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen opens to the dining area, deck and great room to make this perfect for entertaining. Upstairs you'll find a Loft perfect for a reading nook, play area, or office space. Upstairs is also the master bedroom with an en suite bath & walk-in closet, 2 additional bedrooms, 2nd floor laundry and another full bath complete the upstairs. The finished basement features a family room, 4th bedroom, and a full bathroom. * * * * Purchase includes: Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator, Stove, Microwave and Dishwasher. * * * *

13. 2025-12-09
    soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$14,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,457
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Urbandale

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #69

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbandale, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 49,196
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,265
• Household income: $175,944
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 63.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 199.789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+161.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $329,000 DMMLS
• 2025-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.