2914 Dothan Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28306

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1980 0.25 ac lot Est $161k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Fayetteville with convenient access to everyday essentials, this renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is move-in ready and easy to settle into. Inside, you’ll find updated finishes throughout, including granite countertops and luxury vinyl plank flooring that carry through the main living areas. The layout flows well, with a formal dining area that gives you a defined space to gather while still feeling connected to the rest of the home. There’s also an additional bonus space that works well for a home office or flex area depending on your needs. A separate laundry room adds to the functionality, and both the front and back porches give you a chance to enjoy the outdo

Key facts

• Formal dining area
• Bonus space
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• BONUS SPACE
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South View Middle (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #374 of 475 statewide, top 80%, 661 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $160k implies a 315% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,233 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2914 Dothan Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-1%)	1mo	$159,900	$112	98
139 Auburn St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+4%)	20mo	$87,000	$58	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,595
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,816
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,030/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,254

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Sheila St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,150	$1.08	23d	1	0.69mi
505 Directive Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.5	1254	$1,495	$1.19	23d	1	0.77mi
513 Directive Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1307	$1,275	$0.98	13d	1	0.77mi
405 Grand Wailea Dr Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,656	$1.56	23d	9	1.05mi
122 Oak St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	1.10mi
126 Oak St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	1.10mi
3718 Pioneer Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,290	$0.85	23d	1	1.22mi
614 Drypoint Ln Apt B Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	23d	1	1.30mi
2253 Rustic Trl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1130	$1,295	$1.15	13d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 1986-01-22
   soldstatus $38,500
4. 1984-07-01
   soldstatus $37,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 27.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,030
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71
• After-tax cash flow: $2,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+327.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $159,900 LPRMLS
• 1986-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,030 · +89.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.