1512 Old Bridge Rd · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$179,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1980 1.88 ac lot Est $344k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As-Is Fixer Upper at a bargain price. This house has lots of new add-ons by the current owner, new roof, 2024, new electrical upgrade, 2025. Lots of acreage to spread out.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Central fireplace
• 1.88-acre lot

Tags

• 1.88-ACRE LOT
• 2021 ROOF
• 200-AMP ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED-IN WOODEN BACK PORCH
• CENTRAL FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Resale property; Not new construction
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 spaces per unit
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric service (implied by electric water heater)
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Detached property; Frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Paved county-maintained road access; Approximately 1.88 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10' x 10')
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living/dining combo

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 512 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.08%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,824
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1124 Jacks Branch Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-1%)	18mo	$340,000	$247	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,255
• Equity at exit: $26,837

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $32,513
• Equity at exit: $15,562

Cash invested: $50,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $179,990

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $474	+0% $424	+5% $373	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $348	+0% $424	+5% $499	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $469	base $424	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,998
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,990 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,990 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,990 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,990 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,990 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,990 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $179,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 66.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,082
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$538
• After-tax cash flow: $4,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $179,990 PARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-28 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Sold (MLS) $150,000 PARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $180,000 PARMLS
• 2012-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2012-03-29 Sold (MLS) $79,900 PARMLS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $79,900 PARMLS
• 2011-08-21 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2011-03-21 Listed $119,999 PARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $899 · +21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.