Tidewater 2B Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$327,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · MultiFamily · 1 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Base price does not include the homesite premium or design options. * The Tidewater 2B two-bedroom, two-bath twin villa home designed by Neal Communities features a spacious layout with an open living area. The home includes an open great room, dining area and beautifully-equipped kitchen with island for enjoying five-star meals. A den offers the perfect space for a home office, while a covered lanai at the back of the home provides a lovely environment for enjoying the outdoors. The master suite bedroom includes the option of a window or door to the lanai. The suite also features two closets and a bath with dual sink vanities, walk-in shower and private water closet. A walk-in closet an

Key facts

• Master suite
• Dining area
• Open living area

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• DINING AREA
• BEAUTIFULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• COVERED LANAI
• MASTER SUITE
• DUAL SINK VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $327,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Tidewater 2B); Located in Parrish, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Tidewater 2B); Living area of 1,530

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $328k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $328k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.96%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-11,184
• Equity at exit: $48,904

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $14,774
• Equity at exit: $28,359

Cash invested: $91,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $327,990

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,065	-5% $952	+0% $839	+5% $725	+10% $612
Rent	-10% $528	-5% $684	+0% $839	+5% $994	+10% $1,149
Rate	-1.0pp $1,004	-0.5pp $922	base $839	+0.5pp $754	+1.0pp $667

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$3,930
Total (2 units)			$3,931

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,998
• Closing costs: $9,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13832 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1641	$2,700	$1.65	25d	1	0.24mi
4723 Willow Bend Ave Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$2,800	$1.84	25d	1	0.40mi
3775 Manorwood Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$3,300	$1.56	17d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-10
   listed $327,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,373
• − Property taxes: −$4,920
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,774
• − Management: −$3,774
• − Depreciation: −$9,542
• Taxable income: $5,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $8,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Tidewater 2B twin villa home is in good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B