7736 Bretshire Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1960 8,938 sqft lot $91/sqft · 29% below area Est $176k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brick home sits on an unrestricted large lot and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The home needs some TLC—bring your vision!

Key facts

• 8,938 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $125k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,515
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -28.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7705 Yoe St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+1%)	3mo	$90,000	$65	71
7630 Yoe St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	69
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+2%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	65
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+2%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	64
7918 Cassie Pine Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+2%)	0mo	$278,290	$197	64
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+2%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	61
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+2%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	60
7626 Bellingham Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,478 (+7%)	1mo	$140,000	$95	56
7909 Elisha Park Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+12%)	2mo	$250,000	$162	55
7321 Wiley Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,262 (-9%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	52
7234 Boggess Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-10%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	46
7261 Boggess Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-15%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $76,065
• Equity at exit: $100,534

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $195,968
• Equity at exit: $205,118

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,015/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $404	+0% $369	+5% $333	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $302	+0% $369	+5% $435	+10% $501
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $400	base $369	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	2d	5	0.39mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.57mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	44d	1	0.60mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	44d	1	0.66mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	0.66mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	0.66mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	25d	1	0.67mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	44d	1	0.68mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.68mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.70mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	44d	1	0.70mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	44d	1	0.70mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.71mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	0d	1	0.71mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.71mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	25d	1	0.72mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	25d	1	0.73mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.75mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	44d	1	0.76mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	8d	1	0.80mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	8d	1	0.80mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,675	$1.04	0d	1	0.86mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	0.86mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	8d	1	0.87mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	0.92mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	25d	1	0.98mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	0.98mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	0.99mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	44d	1	1.00mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	16d	1	1.01mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	44d	1	1.01mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	8d	1	1.06mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	1.07mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	8d	1	1.08mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	25d	1	1.12mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	0d	1	1.12mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	1.15mi
7804 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	23d	1	1.19mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	44d	1	1.19mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $125,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $125,000 Active 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   This brick home sits on an unrestricted large lot and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The home needs some TLC—bring your vision!

6. 1991-06-01
   soldstatus $49,000
7. 1991-01-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,015 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,015 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,015
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $3,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+155.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 1991-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1991-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,015 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.