The Dove Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$261,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 879 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Audubon by Smith Douglas Homes, formerly Devon Street Homes. Located in Magnolia, TX, Audubon 40's offer a comfortable lifestyle, surrounded by nature in the beautiful community of Audubon! Now selling 1 and 2 story homes from 1,500 - 2387sf, 3-5 beds, and 2-3.5 baths. The Robin model home is now open!

Key facts

• Surrounded by nature
• Model home open
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SURROUNDED BY NATURE
• MODEL HOME OPEN

🏗️ New construction. The $261,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,455.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2366 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 879 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $219,517 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 879 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,455
• List price: $261,990
• Delta: -15.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40527 Goldeneye Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-0%)	4mo	$270,000	$157	87
15423 Bell's Vireo Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-0%)	3mo	$299,000	$173	80
40759 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+4%)	4mo	$293,490	$163	70
40718 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+4%)	4mo	$294,890	$164	69
40735 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+4%)	4mo	$279,990	$156	69
40738 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-4%)	3mo	$229,990	$139	69
40723 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-4%)	3mo	$249,990	$151	68
15103 Bank Swallow Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+5%)	3mo	$299,990	$164	56
15435 Park Perch Pl	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-2%)	2mo	$279,990	$166	56
15419 Park Perch Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-7%)	4mo	$299,900	$186	53
15127 Bank Swallow Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+7%)	2mo	$319,900	$173	52
15034 Baikal Teal Ter	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,992 (+15%)	0mo	$310,000	$156	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $136,945
• Equity at exit: $277,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $412,791
• Equity at exit: $599,260

Cash invested: $86,367 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $282,500 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 95 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 2366
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,698

Max offer price $250,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-291	+0% $-397	+5% $-504	+10% $-611
Rent	-10% $-571	-5% $-484	+0% $-397	+5% $-311	+10% $-224
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-319	base $-397	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,114
• Closing costs: $9,254
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,891	$2.62	0d	40	0.05mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	82d	1	0.11mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	89d	1	0.11mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	0d	1	0.11mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	184d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	165d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	10d	1	0.32mi
40402 Red Poppy Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,295	$1.21	55d	1	0.44mi
14703 Night Violet Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$1,951	$1.12	56d	1	0.49mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	139d	1	0.66mi
40553 Winter Grass Bnd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,800	$1.09	27d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	184d	1	0.83mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	112d	1	0.89mi
40618 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,300	$1.46	64d	1	1.06mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	95d	1	1.06mi
40830 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,950	$1.52	85d	1	1.11mi
40650 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	65d	1	1.13mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	184d	1	1.14mi
475 Audubons Shearwater Way Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,700	$1.32	104d	1	1.32mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	165d	1	1.45mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	1d	1	1.45mi
913 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,750	$1.48	56d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $261,990 Active 879 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $261,990 Active 878 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $261,990 Active 877 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $261,990 Active 876 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $261,990 Active 875 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $261,990 Active 873 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $261,990 Active 872 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $261,990 Active 871 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $261,990 Active 870 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $261,990 Active 869 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $261,990 Active 868 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $261,990 Active 867 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $261,990 Active 866 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $261,990 Active 865 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $261,990 Active 864 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $261,990 Active 863 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $261,990 Active 862 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $261,990 Active 861 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $261,990 Active 860 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $261,990 Active 859 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $261,990 Active 858 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $261,990 Active 857 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $261,990 Active 856 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $261,990 Active 855 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $261,990 Active 854 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $261,990 Active 853 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $261,990 Active 852 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $261,990 Active 851 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $261,990 Active 850 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $261,990 Active 849 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $261,990 Active 848 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $261,990 Active 847 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $261,990 Active 846 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $261,990 Active 845 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $261,990 Active 844 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $261,990 Active 843 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $261,990 Active 842 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $261,990 Active 841 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $261,990 Active 840 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $261,990 Active 839 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $261,990 Active 838 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $261,990 Active 837 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $261,990 Active 836 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $261,990 Active 835 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $261,990 Active 834 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $261,990 Active 833 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $261,990 Active 832 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $261,990 Active 831 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $261,990 Active 830 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $261,990 Active 829 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,278
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − Depreciation: −$8,973
• Taxable loss: −$10,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the overall appearance and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the garage door — A new garage door can improve the curb appeal and functionality of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-06-12 Listed $261,990 Zillow