The Dove Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$261,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 787 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Audubon by Smith Douglas Homes, formerly Devon Street Homes. Located in Magnolia, TX, Audubon 40's offer a comfortable lifestyle, surrounded by nature in the beautiful community of Audubon! Now selling 1 and 2 story homes from 1,500 - 2387sf, 3-5 beds, and 2-3.5 baths. The Robin model home is now open!

Key facts

• Surrounded by nature
• Model home open
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SURROUNDED BY NATURE
• MODEL HOME OPEN

🏗️ New construction. The $261,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,617.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 787 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,551 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 787 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,617
• List price: $261,990
• Delta: -16.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40527 Goldeneye Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-0%)	1mo	$270,000	$157	90
40759 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+4%)	1mo	$293,490	$163	72
40718 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+4%)	1mo	$294,890	$164	72
40735 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+4%)	1mo	$279,990	$156	72
40723 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-4%)	0mo	$249,990	$151	71
15404 Bicknells Thrush Ct	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,950 (+12%)	2mo	$340,000	$174	61
40511 Tyto Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-14%)	2mo	$235,000	$158	61
40702 Barley Straw	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,909 (+10%)	2mo	$311,490	$163	59
15419 Park Perch Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-7%)	1mo	$299,900	$186	55
15315 Mountain Plover Pl	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,689 (-2%)	2mo	$299,990	$178	55
40599 Slough Way	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,566 (-10%)	3mo	$294,990	$188	49
15019 Baikal Teal Ter	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,931 (+11%)	2mo	$317,900	$165	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $145,708
• Equity at exit: $282,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $432,746
• Equity at exit: $609,289

Cash invested: $87,813 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $283,450 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1924
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,704/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,743

Max offer price $270,646

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-189	+0% $-297	+5% $-405	+10% $-514
Rent	-10% $-484	-5% $-390	+0% $-297	+5% $-203	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-217	base $-297	+0.5pp $-378	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,404
• Closing costs: $9,409
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,781	$2.52	0d	40	0.05mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	93d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	73d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	93d	1	0.32mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	48d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	93d	1	0.83mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	21d	1	0.89mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.06mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	93d	1	1.14mi
475 Audubons Shearwater Way Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,700	$1.32	12d	1	1.32mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	73d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $261,990 Active 787 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $261,990 Active 785 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $261,990 Active 784 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $261,990 Active 783 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $261,990 Active 782 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $261,990 Active 779 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $261,990 Active 777 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $261,990 Active 776 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $261,990 Active 772 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $261,990 Active 771 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $261,990 Active 770 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $261,990 Active 769 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $261,990 Active 768 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $261,990 Active 765 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $261,990 Active 764 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $261,990 Active 763 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $261,990 Active 762 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $261,990 Active 761 DOM
19. 2026-07-11
    days on market $261,990 Active 759 DOM
20. 2026-07-10
    days on market $261,990 Active 758 DOM
21. 2026-07-09
    days on market $261,990 Active 757 DOM
22. 2026-07-07
    days on market $261,990 Active 755 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $261,990 Active 754 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $261,990 Active 753 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $261,990 Active 752 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $261,990 Active 751 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $261,990 Active 750 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $261,990 Active 749 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $261,990 Active 748 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $261,990 Active 747 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $261,990 Active 746 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $261,990 Active 745 DOM
33. 2026-06-26
    days on market $261,990 Active 744 DOM
34. 2026-06-24
    days on market $261,990 Active 742 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $261,990 Active 740 DOM
36. 2026-06-21
    days on market $261,990 Active 739 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $261,990 Active 736 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $261,990 Active 735 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $261,990 Active 734 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $261,990 Active 733 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $261,990 Active 731 DOM
42. 2026-06-09
    days on market $261,990 Active 727 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $261,990 Active 726 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $261,990 Active 725 DOM
45. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,990 Active 722 DOM
46. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,990 Active 721 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,990 Active 720 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,990 Active 719 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,990 Active 718 DOM
50. 2024-06-12
    listed $261,990 Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Welcome to Audubon by Smith Douglas Homes, formerly Devon Street Homes. Located in Magnolia, TX, Audubon 40's offer a comfortable lifestyle, surrounded by nature in the beautiful community of Audubon! Now selling 1 and 2 story homes from 1,500 - 2387sf, 3-5 beds, and 2-3.5 baths. The Robin model home is now open!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,567
• − Property taxes: −$4,704
• − Insurance: −$1,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − Depreciation: −$9,123
• Taxable loss: −$9,098
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the overall appearance and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the garage door — A new garage door can improve the curb appeal and functionality of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-06-12 Listed $261,990 Zillow