517 / 520 S Orpe St · Clarendon, TX 79226

$119,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1958 1,782 sqft lot $67/sqft · 42% below area Est $205k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss the opportunity to own a spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home on nearly one acre in a peaceful small town setting. This property is packed with features including oversized 2 car garage with an attached shop, perfect for DIY projects or extra storage. Additional shop idea for a canning station , hobby space or workshop, Attached large carport providing covered parking for vehicles, boats or an RV . There is plenty of outdoor space for gardening or enjoying the open landscape. Endless possibilities, this property is ready for your vision.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• Additional shop
• Attached shop

Tags

• OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE
• ATTACHED SHOP
• ADDITIONAL SHOP
• ATTACHED LARGE CARPORT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-531/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#259 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarendon ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Donley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($826 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Donley County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,815 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,581
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -41.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,822
• Equity at exit: $58,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $55,270
• Equity at exit: $93,359

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79226

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,160/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $111,684

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-10	+0% $-44	+5% $-78	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-85	+0% $-44	+5% $-4	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-14	base $-44	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,500 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,500 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-01-03
    listed $119,500 Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Don't miss the opportunity to own a spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home on nearly one acre in a peaceful small town setting. This property is packed with features including oversized 2 car garage with an attached shop, perfect for DIY projects or extra storage. Additional shop idea for a canning station , hobby space or workshop, Attached large carport providing covered parking for vehicles, boats or an RV . There is plenty of outdoor space for gardening or enjoying the open landscape. Endless possibilities, this property is ready for your vision.

17. 2023-07-26
    soldstatus
18. 2023-07-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,160 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,187 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$2,160
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$987
• − Management: −$987
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$2,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $84/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarendon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814160
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,724
• Composite: 43.12/100
• National rank: #3082
• State rank: #175 of 826 in TX

Livability — Clarendon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #6097

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clarendon, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,873

Population outlook (Donley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,008 people
• By 2030: 2,777 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 2,419 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 2,224 · -26.1%
• By 2075: 2,018 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 1,949 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 6% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Donley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.2) · D 10.2% · R 88.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -64.1pp · 2024: -78.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.2 2020: R+75.2 2016: R+70.9 2012: R+69.2 2008: R+64.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Current HPI: 85.0932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-03 Listed $119,500 AARMLS
• 2023-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,160 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.