148 Ginny Ln · Thomasville, GA 31792

$40,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $44/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $41k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $962 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $41k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.4% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, commute F.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $283 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $40,384 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.52%
• DSCR: 5.47
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,164
• List price: $40,999
• Delta: -75.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Tanglewood Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+8%)	12mo	$210,000	$210	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $54,629
• Equity at exit: $6,113

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.02×
• Total profit: $126,534
• Equity at exit: $3,545

Cash invested: $11,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31792

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$215
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $359

Max offer price $40,999

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $990	-5% $976	+0% $962	+5% $947	+10% $933
Rent	-10% $837	-5% $899	+0% $962	+5% $1,024	+10% $1,086
Rate	-1.0pp $982	-0.5pp $972	base $962	+0.5pp $951	+1.0pp $940

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,250
• Closing costs: $1,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Ginny Ln Thomasville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0	854	$1,300	$1.52	44d	2	0.02mi
11369 US Highway 84 E Thomasville, GA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,100	$1.40	44d	1	1.14mi
220 Covington Ave Thomasville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	44d	10	1.37mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $40,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,297
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$205
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,513
• − Management: −$1,513
• − Depreciation: −$1,193
• Taxable income: $11,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,778
• After-tax cash flow: $8,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor cosmetic improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Add a small front porch or entryway — This can add value and functionality to the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or entryway — This can add value and functionality to the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomas County
• NCES district ID: 1304890
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,341
• Composite: 24.95/100
• National rank: #7565
• State rank: #97 of 174 in GA

Livability — Thomasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #6678

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thomas County · 22,962 people
• City population: 22,962
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,962
• Household income: $50,460
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1059.0

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 47% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.17%
• Current HPI: 228.0107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B