9125 Belton Dr · Lubbock, TX 79423

$114,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1974 7,142 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 9125 Belton Drive, a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage located in a desirable South Lubbock neighborhood. This property presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their own personal touch and build equity. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner with a vision, this fixer-upper offers tremendous value-add potential in a sought-after location. Inside, you'll find a functional layout featuring spacious living areas and abundant natural light. The living room is centered around a cozy wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting gathering space. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage and counter space, providing a solid foundation for future

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Large backyard
• Storage shed

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-story home
• Exterior features: Private yard; Concrete paved road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.21%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $998
• Equity at exit: $17,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $22,752
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,406/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $114,995

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,749
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2415 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,650	$0.98	21d	1	0.29mi
3101 99th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,350	$0.80	43d	1	0.50mi
2403 87th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	13d	1	0.55mi
2401 87th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	13d	1	0.57mi
2218 88th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,450	$1.11	43d	1	0.60mi
8219 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,475	$1.05	43d	1	0.61mi
2204 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,325	$1.05	13d	1	0.64mi
8216 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,550	$1.10	21d	1	0.64mi
9001 Indiana Ave Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$699	$0.64	43d	1	0.70mi
8606 Avenue V Unit V Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,075	$1.05	43d	1	0.75mi
9803 Avenue V Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	21d	1	0.76mi
2612 81st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,100	$0.96	43d	1	0.76mi
2303 84th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1128	$1,100	$0.98	21d	1	0.77mi
9702 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,195	$0.94	43d	1	0.80mi
9803 Uvalde Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1474	$1,425	$0.97	13d	1	0.80mi
8214 Vernon Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	928	$1,100	$1.19	21d	1	0.82mi
2909 106th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1646	$1,750	$1.06	21d	1	0.89mi
2530 107th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,449	$1.15	43d	1	0.89mi
9715 Joliet Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	43d	1	0.92mi
2022 102nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	13d	1	0.96mi
2011 100th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1698	$1,750	$1.03	13d	1	0.98mi
8604 Jordan Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1855	$1,900	$1.02	43d	1	0.99mi
10317 Vernon Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,800	$1.57	21d	1	1.01mi
8217 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,570	$1.80	13d	28	1.03mi
3417 83rd Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,650	$1.00	21d	1	1.04mi
9818 Jordan Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	1.07mi
2523 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	43d	1	1.07mi
2518 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	21d	1	1.09mi
3311 79th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1391	$1,249	$0.90	43d	1	1.10mi
3102 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	21d	1	1.12mi
8601 Memphis Dr Unit A 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1069	$1,150	$1.08	43d	1	1.12mi
3106 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,275	$1.11	13d	1	1.13mi
3108 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,325	$1.08	21d	1	1.13mi
2501 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,475	$1.08	21d	1	1.14mi
3203 109th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	43d	1	1.14mi
3101 110th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,225	$1.03	21d	1	1.15mi
8108 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,400	$1.07	44d	1	1.15mi
2510 112th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,475	$1.08	21d	1	1.15mi
3107 75th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	21d	1	1.16mi
1717 102nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,550	$1.10	21d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,995 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,995 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,995 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,995 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,995 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,995 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,995 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,995 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,995 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,995 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $114,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,406 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,406
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$547
• After-tax cash flow: $3,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $114,995 LARMLS
• 2002-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,406 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.