20127 W Paloma Loop · Bonney, TX 77583

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2019 0.73 ac lot $56/sqft · at area comps Est $135k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

Key facts

• 0.73 acre lot
• Built 2019
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (all main rooms on the first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2019; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms (each about 10 x 12); First-floor primary bedroom (about 13 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open first-floor layout; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 4.2% in Bonney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,037 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frontier El (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 445 students, 53% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.16%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,000
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20127 W Paloma Loop	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,432 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$56	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $24,381
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $65,110
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,465/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $897	-5% $859	+0% $821	+5% $783	+10% $744
Rent	-10% $627	-5% $724	+0% $821	+5% $918	+10% $1,015
Rate	-1.0pp $889	-0.5pp $855	base $821	+0.5pp $786	+1.0pp $750

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19220 Primrose Oaks Dr Arcola, TX	4.0	3.5	1777	$2,299	$1.29	0d	11	1.04mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 496-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $135,000 Active 496-char remark
3. 2026-04-10
   historical
4. 2025-11-03
   price $175,900
5. 2025-10-21
   listed $185,900 Active
6. 2019-06-07
   soldstatus Sold

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

7. 2019-06-07
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

8. 2019-04-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

9. 2019-04-05
   price $35,000

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

10. 2019-01-07
    price $38,070

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

11. 2018-12-04
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

12. 2018-11-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

13. 2018-10-06
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

14. 2018-09-01
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

15. 2018-08-29
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

16. 2018-05-31
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

17. 2018-05-23
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

18. 2018-04-11
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

19. 2018-02-19
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

20. 2018-02-08
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

21. 2018-01-24
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

22. 2018-01-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

23. 2017-11-11
    listed $41,070 Active

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Palomar Acres Section 3 in a very up and coming area of Rosharon easy access to HWY 288 and 288 Business. You can set a mobile home or build your dream home. No Homeowners Association FEES! Very little restrictions, Horses allowed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,465 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,465 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,465
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $8,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,999
• After-tax cash flow: $7,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bonney

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1037
• US rank: #18490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+228.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $175,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $185,900 HARMLS
• 2019-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-05 Price Changed $35,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-07 Price Changed $38,070 HARMLS
• 2018-12-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-10-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-09-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-01-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-11 Listed $41,070 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,465 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.