17864 SE 106th Ter · The Villages, FL 34491

$244,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1992 7,841 sqft lot Est $291k · 16% under $204/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to well maintained 1526 sq ft , 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a 2 car garage. Enclosed lanai with sliders do you can open them and enjoy the nice breeze. Home has LTV flooring in the main areas with carpet in the bedrooms and tile in the wet areas. The L shaped Living / dining room gives you that open feeling. Just main bedroom with Large walk in closet. 2nd and 3rd bedroom large enough for king size bed . Nice size closets also, Awnings on all windows. Front porch is great for sitting and talking with the neighbors, All windows have nice metal awnings. Roof replaced in 2023. HVAC - 2009. Water Heater - 2010 Newer Appliances, Huge Patio with wa

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Ltv flooring
• Metal awnings

Tags

• ENCLOSED LANAI
• LTV FLOORING
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• FRONT PORCH
• METAL AWNINGS
• OUTDOOR POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,100; Total annual fees: $2,448; Total monthly fees: $204; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Heritage management; Monthly HOA fee $204 (required); Association approval required; Deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Community amenities: pool, fitness center, tennis courts, golf, dog park, golf carts OK, irrigation with reclaimed water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Phone available; Public water available and connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler uses recycled water
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Faces west; Located in a PUD; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($45/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stanton-Weirsdale Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 544 students, 70% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $245k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,058 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,466
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10410 SE 179th Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,526 (0%)	3mo	$205,000	$134	78
10683 SE 174th Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-5%)	2mo	$220,000	$152	67
10486 SE 179th Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-5%)	13mo	$250,000	$172	66
2101 Barbosa Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+1%)	4mo	$400,000	$258	56
10385 SE 178th St	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-7%)	13mo	$247,900	$175	54
17815 SE 102nd Ter	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (-10%)	3mo	$235,000	$171	52
17430 SE 110th Ter	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,623 (+6%)	12mo	$309,900	$191	50
10986 SE 171st Street Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+7%)	11mo	$325,000	$199	45
2117 Barbosa Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+7%)	17mo	$325,000	$200	41
17472 SE 112th Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+14%)	8mo	$366,548	$211	41
13550 County Road 109h	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-3%)	22mo	$165,000	$111	40
11101 SE 174th Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-13%)	23mo	$351,000	$264	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,403
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-33,826
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $73	+0% $4	+5% $-66	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-82	+0% $4	+5% $89	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $66	base $4	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	21d	1	0.44mi
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	21d	1	0.45mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	0.47mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	21d	1	0.73mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	0.81mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	21d	1	0.82mi
17817 SE 115th Ct Unit 1 Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,300	$1.07	22d	1	0.83mi
17951 SE 115th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	14d	1	1.07mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,150	$2.09	21d	38	1.15mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,991	$1.85	21d	36	1.15mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	21d	1	1.17mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	22d	1	1.19mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	22d	1	1.22mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	1.28mi
17522 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1884	$1,875	$1.00	22d	1	1.35mi
17408 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,850	$1.07	22d	1	1.39mi
17472 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,950	$1.47	14d	1	1.48mi
1532 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$2,950	$2.70	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $244,900 Active
3. 2001-03-27
   soldstatus $89,900
4. 1992-12-01
   soldstatus $73,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,033 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$4,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+234.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1992-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.