Sanctuary Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$319,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · SingleFamily · 280 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sanctuary is a cozy home design perfect for empty-nesters. The gourmet kitchen and gathering room are adjacent to each other and include a café off to the side for casual dining or game night. Options for this model include an indoor fireplace in the gathering room, and an optional patio fireplace and rear extension, for additional livable space.

Key facts

• Patio fireplace
• Gathering room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GATHERING ROOM
• INDOOR FIREPLACE
• PATIO FIREPLACE
• REAR EXTENSION

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $373,645.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-693 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 987 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,073 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.95%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,645
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6738 W Willow Way	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,613 (-6%)	2mo	$379,900	$236	81
6900 W Patriot Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,613 (-6%)	4mo	$365,000	$226	77
7391 W Stony Quail Way	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,620 (-6%)	3mo	$401,000	$248	61
5920 W Cinder Brook Way	0.51mi	2/2.5	1,856 (+8%)	1mo	$375,000	$202	60
5793 W Saratoga Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (+4%)	2mo	$440,000	$247	59
5942 W Bushwood Way	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,832 (+7%)	4mo	$457,000	$249	58
4392 N Julieanne Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,584 (-8%)	4mo	$390,000	$246	57
3909 N Presidio Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+2%)	4mo	$315,000	$179	55
5821 W Cinder Brook Way	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,864 (+9%)	4mo	$375,000	$201	55
4423 N Presidio Dr	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,832 (+7%)	2mo	$405,000	$221	51
6494 W Georgetown Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,889 (+10%)	2mo	$327,000	$173	43
2845 N Crestwood Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,481 (-14%)	4mo	$270,000	$182	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-108,771
• Equity at exit: $55,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-167,657
• Equity at exit: $32,306

Cash invested: $104,621 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $365,000 ($219/sqft)
• Median days on market: 158 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 987
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,959
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$467 /mo · $5,605/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,269

Max offer price $273,296

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-435	-5% $-564	+0% $-693	+5% $-823	+10% $-952
Rent	-10% $-882	-5% $-788	+0% $-693	+5% $-599	+10% $-505
Rate	-1.0pp $-505	-0.5pp $-598	base $-693	+0.5pp $-790	+1.0pp $-889

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,411
• Closing costs: $11,209
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	139d	1	0.13mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,000	$1.65	10d	1	0.25mi
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	139d	1	0.27mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	139d	1	0.30mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	120d	1	0.43mi
6498 W Victory Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,095	$0.98	101d	1	0.53mi
5728 W Autumn Vista Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2133	$2,400	$1.13	139d	1	0.61mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	139d	1	0.61mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	139d	1	0.70mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,900	$1.08	38d	1	0.70mi
5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,600	$1.08	75d	1	0.75mi
5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,600	$1.08	73d	1	0.75mi
3759 N Astoria Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,695	$0.96	27d	1	0.84mi
5424 W Heritage Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,750	$1.18	44d	1	0.85mi
5430 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,650	$1.11	84d	1	0.88mi
2525 N Riverside Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1933	$4,500	$2.33	10d	1	0.92mi
2528 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,195	$1.10	139d	1	0.94mi
6363 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1997	$2,350	$1.18	139d	1	1.05mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,740	$1.39	6d	1	1.07mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,740	$1.39	7d	1	1.07mi
4024 N Cottonwood Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1890	$2,000	$1.06	49d	1	1.10mi
2312 N Hudson Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$2,200	$1.76	38d	1	1.14mi
7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,695	$1.17	139d	1	1.15mi
2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,578	$1.46	110d	1	1.22mi
7525 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,100	$1.45	10d	1	1.24mi
8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2041	$1,700	$0.83	80d	1	1.28mi
8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2041	$1,700	$0.83	94d	1	1.28mi
7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	139d	1	1.29mi
2713 N Camden Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,500	$1.19	42d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $319,990 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $319,990 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $319,990 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $319,990 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $319,990 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $319,990 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $319,990 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $319,990 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $319,990 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $319,990 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 260 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 259 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 256 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $319,990 Active 255 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 254 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 253 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 252 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $319,990 Active 251 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $334,990 Active 250 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $334,990 Active 249 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $334,990 Active 248 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $334,990 Active 247 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $334,990 Active 246 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $334,990 Active 245 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $334,990 Active 244 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $334,990 Active 243 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $334,990 Active 242 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $334,990 Active 241 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $334,990 Active 240 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $334,990 Active 239 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $334,990 Active 238 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $334,990 Active 237 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $334,990 Active 236 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $334,990 Active 235 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $334,990 Active 234 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $334,990 Active 233 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $334,990 Active 231 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $334,990 Active 230 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $334,990 Active 229 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $334,990 Active 228 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $334,990 Active 225 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $334,990 Active 224 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $334,990 Active 223 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $334,990 Active 222 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $334,990 Active 220 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,930
• − Property taxes: −$5,605
• − Insurance: −$1,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$10,870
• Taxable loss: −$15,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,642
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,575–$25,725 screening

The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and living spaces. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the front door — Improves the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

High Florence High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $334,990 Zillow