🏗️ New Construction
Sanctuary Plan · Florence, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 112°F)
- 5 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 13 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +6.5/30.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.8/5.0
- 1% rule +1.6/10.0
- Schools +1.0/10.0
- DSCR +0.8/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$334,990
Sanctuary Plan · Florence, AZ 85132
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · SingleFamily
· 233 Days on market
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The Sanctuary is a cozy home design perfect for empty-nesters. The gourmet kitchen and gathering room are adjacent to each other and include a café off to the side for casual dining or game night. Options for this model include an indoor fireplace in the gathering room, and an optional patio fireplace and rear extension, for additional livable space.
Key facts
- Patio fireplace
- Gathering room
- Gourmet kitchen
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $334,990 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $378,748.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-641 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (14.6% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (25.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $250k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 860 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$250,185
(25.3% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.66% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.26%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.25%
- DSCR
- 0.68
- GRM
- 12.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $378,748
- List price
- $334,990
- Delta
- -11.55%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6738 W Willow Way | 0.15mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (-6%) | 0mo | $379,900 | $236 | 83 |
| 6900 W Patriot Way | 0.22mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (-6%) | 2mo | $365,000 | $226 | 78 |
| 6354 W Bushwood Ct | 0.40mi | 2/2.0 | 1,867 (+9%) | 3mo | $359,900 | $193 | 64 |
| 7391 W Stony Quail Way | 0.58mi | 2/2.0 | 1,620 (-6%) | 1mo | $401,000 | $248 | 62 |
| 5942 W Bushwood Way | 0.57mi | 2/2.0 | 1,832 (+7%) | 3mo | $457,000 | $249 | 60 |
| 4392 N Julieanne Ct | 0.57mi | 2/2.0 | 1,584 (-8%) | 3mo | $390,000 | $246 | 58 |
| 3909 N Presidio Dr | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,756 (+2%) | 2mo | $315,000 | $179 | 57 |
| 5821 W Cinder Brook Way | 0.58mi | 2/2.0 | 1,864 (+9%) | 3mo | $375,000 | $201 | 56 |
| 6113 W Sandpiper Way | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,886 (+10%) | 3mo | $370,000 | $196 | 56 |
| 4423 N Presidio Dr | 0.73mi | 2/2.5 | 1,832 (+7%) | 1mo | $405,000 | $221 | 52 |
| 6494 W Georgetown Way | 0.72mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,889 (+10%) | 0mo | $327,000 | $173 | 44 |
| 2845 N Crestwood Ct | 0.69mi | 2/2.0 | 1,481 (-14%) | 3mo | $270,000 | $182 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -30.8%
- Equity multiple
- -0.00×
- Total profit
- $-106,442
- Equity at exit
- $56,473
10-year hold
- IRR
- -43.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.53×
- Total profit
- $-162,070
- Equity at exit
- $32,747
Cash invested: $106,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 60 active · 26 under contract
- Months of supply
- 4.9 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $369,845 ($218/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 139 d
- This list price
- 25% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +1.1% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85132
- Home prices YoY
- -5.2%
- Rents YoY
- 1.3%
- Active inventory
- 860
- Price-to-rent
- 11.2×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,502 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,986
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$473 /mo · $5,681/yr
- Insurance
- −$158
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$525
- Net cashflow
- $-641
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$3,313
Max offer price
$285,997
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-379 | -5% $-510 | +0% $-641 | +5% $-772 | +10% $-903 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-839 | -5% $-740 | +0% $-641 | +5% $-542 | +10% $-443 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-450 | -0.5pp $-545 | base $-641 | +0.5pp $-739 | +1.0pp $-839 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $94,687
- Closing costs
- $11,362
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 23 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $3,000 | $2.17 | 93d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $3,500 | $1.93 | 93d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $3,500 | $1.93 | 93d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $3,000 | $2.17 | 93d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1644 | $2,500 | $1.52 | 73d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 6498 W Victory Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2144 | $2,095 | $0.98 | 54d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 5728 W Autumn Vista Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2133 | $2,400 | $1.13 | 93d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1586 | $3,500 | $2.21 | 93d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1756 | $2,200 | $1.25 | 93d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,600 | $1.08 | 29d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,600 | $1.08 | 26d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5430 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,650 | $1.11 | 38d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 2525 N Riverside Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1933 | $3,200 | $1.66 | 21d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 2528 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2002 | $2,195 | $1.10 | 93d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 6363 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1997 | $2,350 | $1.18 | 93d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 4024 N Cottonwood Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1890 | $2,000 | $1.06 | 2d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 2312 N Hudson Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1251 | $2,400 | $1.92 | 0d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1449 | $1,695 | $1.17 | 93d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1765 | $2,578 | $1.46 | 64d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2041 | $1,700 | $0.83 | 34d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2041 | $1,700 | $0.83 | 48d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1450 | $1,700 | $1.17 | 93d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 2713 N Camden Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1262 | $1,600 | $1.27 | 10d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $334,990 Active 233 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $334,990 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $334,990 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $334,990 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $334,990 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $334,990 Active 225 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $334,990 Active 224 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $334,990 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $334,990 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $334,990 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $334,990 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $334,990 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $334,990 Active 216 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $334,990 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $334,990 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $334,990 Active 212 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $334,990 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $334,990 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $334,990 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $334,990 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $334,990 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $334,990 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $334,990 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $334,990 Active 204 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $334,990 Active 203 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $334,990 Active 201 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $334,990 Active 200 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $334,990 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $334,990 Active 197 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $334,990 Active 196 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $334,990 Active 195 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $334,990 Active 194 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $334,990 Active 193 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $334,990 Active 192 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $334,990 Active 191 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $334,990 Active 190 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $334,990 Active 188 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $334,990 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $334,990 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $334,990 Active 182 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $334,990 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $334,990 Active 180 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $334,990 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $334,990 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $334,990 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $334,990 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $334,990 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $334,990 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $334,990 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $334,990 Active 167 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,022
- − Mortgage interest
- −$21,216
- − Property taxes
- −$5,681
- − Insurance
- −$1,894
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,402
- − Management
- −$2,402
- − Depreciation
- −$11,018
- Taxable loss
- −$14,590
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,502
- After-tax cash flow
- $-4,190/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $8,575–$25,725 screening
The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and living spaces. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Replace the front door — Improves the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Install new flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100
Zoned Schools
High
Florence High School
F
AZ #343/381
Nat'l #16,463/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Florence Unified School District (4437)
- NCES district ID
- 0402920
- Math proficiency
- 16% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $54,426
- Composite
- 18.31/100
- National rank
- #8950
- State rank
- #178 of 249 in AZ
C
Composite livability gradescore 60/100
Livability — Florence
- Score
- 60/100
- State rank
- #187
- US rank
- #19483
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime A+
Employment B-
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings C
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Florence, AZ
- County
- Pinal County · 437,574 people
- City population
- 38,671
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 38,671
- Household income
- $79,000
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2% of renters
Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 437,574 people
- By 2030
- 446,903 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 452,589 · +3.4%
- By 2050
- 444,126 · +1.5%
- By 2075
- 430,300 · -1.7%
- By 2100
- 393,536 · -10.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 23%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pinal
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -12.75%
- Current HPI
- 233.6644
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.27%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2025-12-19 Listed $334,990 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…