1116 Clay Blvd · Tavares, FL 32778

$354,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,839 sqft · Land · 143 Days on market

Built 2025 6,000 sqft lot $74/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. Avalon Park Tavares is a picturesque living, working, and leisure community featuring tree-lined streets, waterways, and small-town charm. Stanley Martin Homes offers affordable living and modern townhome design, blending comfort and style with the timeless appeal of this unique neighborhood. As part of this 155-acre community, homeowners will enjoy commercial and recreational spaces with a focus on the health and well-being of its residents. Nestled in the serene landscape of Lake Hermosa, Avalon Park Tavares fosters a lifestyle where homeowners feel connected to their neighbors and involved in their community. Market Stre

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Dining area
• Acres of parks

Tags

• MODERN TOWNHOME DESIGN
• ACRES OF PARKS
• WALKING TRAILS
• INVITING OUTDOOR DECK
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• DINING AREA

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $354k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eustis Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 358 students, 65% FRL); Eustis Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 824 students, 57% FRL); Eustis High School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,368 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,462/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,179 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-67,463
• Equity at exit: $52,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-64,440
• Equity at exit: $30,650

Cash invested: $99,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,859
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $724/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,710

Max offer price $319,830

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-96	+0% $-196	+5% $-701	+10% $-824
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-293	+0% $-196	+5% $-99	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-106	base $-196	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,622
• Closing costs: $10,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4229 Evernia Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,100	$1.40	7d	1	0.10mi
3437 Nettle Loop Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,060	$1.24	25d	1	0.16mi
3443 Nettle Loop Tavares, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,295	$0.94	23d	1	0.19mi
3422 Salvia Ct Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,299	$1.25	25d	1	0.20mi
3422 Salvia Ct Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,299	$1.25	22d	1	0.20mi
3031 Jessamine Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	1451	$2,016	$1.39	7d	1	0.39mi
3039 Tansy St Tavares, FL	4.0	2.5	2296	$2,600	$1.13	5d	1	0.48mi
1105 Fig St Tavares, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	14d	1	0.55mi
1105 Fig St Tavares, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	16d	1	0.55mi
3342 Landing View Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,995	$1.18	5d	1	0.58mi
2698 Rowan St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,399	$1.49	4d	1	0.58mi
131 W Atwater Ave Eustis, FL	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	25d	1	0.69mi
131 W Atwater Ave Eustis, FL	4.0	2.0	2614	$2,900	$1.11	14d	1	0.69mi
507 Lakeshore Dr Eustis, FL	3.0	2.0	1806	$4,350	$2.41	25d	1	0.93mi
902 S Grove St Eustis, FL	3.0	1.0	1389	$1,350	$0.97	25d	1	1.00mi
336 Ryans Ridge Ave Eustis, FL	4.0	2.0	1317	$2,000	$1.52	25d	1	1.03mi
408 E Idlewild Ave Eustis, FL	4.0	2.5	1863	$2,349	$1.26	18d	1	1.05mi
1411 S Mary St Eustis, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,950	$1.23	12d	1	1.16mi
116 Dewitt Ct Unit 116 Eustis, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	19d	1	1.37mi
116 Dewitt Ct Eustis, FL	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,890	$1.45	25d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $354,490
3. 2026-01-17
   price $359,490
4. 2026-01-13
   price $344,490
5. 2026-01-06
   price $339,490
6. 2025-12-01
   listed $349,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $724 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,942 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,218/yr (+$185/mo · 306.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,857
• − Property taxes: −$724
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,363
• − Management: −$2,363
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$10,312
• Taxable loss: −$8,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $354,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $359,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $344,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $339,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listed $349,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid