206 York Cottage Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1990 3,999 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HANDY MAN SPECIAL: This is the least expensive home in Sweetwater Community. Average homes sells above $150,000 upward to $250,000 plus. Build you own equity. A great investment property that needs to be renovated to make it your own without paying for someone else's updates. It does have a new a/c unit. Deeded lots, 18-hole executive golf course, heated swimming pool, beautiful clubhouse, fitness center, Tennis and Pickle ball courts, marina on Lake Henry with a long fishing pier. Very active community. Low HOA fees that included water, sewer, trash pickup 2xweek, cable tv and high speed internet by Spectrum and golf with only a 4 dollar trail fee. Come tour our community and see the Wow factor. This is a great find for someone who is a handyman.

Key facts

• New floors
• Remodeled kitchen
• New roof

Tags

• TURN KEY PROPERTY
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• STONE COUNTERS
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home is furnished; Irrigation equipment installed; Located on a private maintained road; Lot about 0.09 acres (approx. 50x80)
• Financial info: Total annual fees $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $387 (association: Erica Mingle); Association approval required; Street lights in community; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats only, number limit; max pet weight 20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces; Garage (laundry located in garage)
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Water available and connected; Sprinkler well; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace and pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,692
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,115
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,107/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	0.99mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	14d	1	1.09mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.18mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	3d	1	1.34mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	24d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetcablepoolgym

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $139,900
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $169,900 Active
17. 2025-03-13
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    HANDY MAN SPECIAL: This is the least expensive home in Sweetwater Community. Average homes sells above $150,000 upward to $250,000 plus. Build you own equity. A great investment property that needs to be renovated to make it your own without paying for someone else's updates. It does have a new a/c unit. Deeded lots, 18-hole executive golf course, heated swimming pool, beautiful clubhouse, fitness center, Tennis and Pickle ball courts, marina on Lake Henry with a long fishing pier. Very active community. Low HOA fees that included water, sewer, trash pickup 2xweek, cable tv and high speed internet by Spectrum and golf with only a 4 dollar trail fee. Come tour our community and see the Wow factor. This is a great find for someone who is a handyman.

18. 2025-03-13
    soldstatus $70,000

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    HANDY MAN SPECIAL: This is the least expensive home in Sweetwater Community. Average homes sells above $150,000 upward to $250,000 plus. Build you own equity. A great investment property that needs to be renovated to make it your own without paying for someone else's updates. It does have a new a/c unit. Deeded lots, 18-hole executive golf course, heated swimming pool, beautiful clubhouse, fitness center, Tennis and Pickle ball courts, marina on Lake Henry with a long fishing pier. Very active community. Low HOA fees that included water, sewer, trash pickup 2xweek, cable tv and high speed internet by Spectrum and golf with only a 4 dollar trail fee. Come tour our community and see the Wow factor. This is a great find for someone who is a handyman.

19. 2025-02-14
    status Pending 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    HANDY MAN SPECIAL: This is the least expensive home in Sweetwater Community. Average homes sells above $150,000 upward to $250,000 plus. Build you own equity. A great investment property that needs to be renovated to make it your own without paying for someone else's updates. It does have a new a/c unit. Deeded lots, 18-hole executive golf course, heated swimming pool, beautiful clubhouse, fitness center, Tennis and Pickle ball courts, marina on Lake Henry with a long fishing pier. Very active community. Low HOA fees that included water, sewer, trash pickup 2xweek, cable tv and high speed internet by Spectrum and golf with only a 4 dollar trail fee. Come tour our community and see the Wow factor. This is a great find for someone who is a handyman.

20. 2025-02-11
    listed $79,900 Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    HANDY MAN SPECIAL: This is the least expensive home in Sweetwater Community. Average homes sells above $150,000 upward to $250,000 plus. Build you own equity. A great investment property that needs to be renovated to make it your own without paying for someone else's updates. It does have a new a/c unit. Deeded lots, 18-hole executive golf course, heated swimming pool, beautiful clubhouse, fitness center, Tennis and Pickle ball courts, marina on Lake Henry with a long fishing pier. Very active community. Low HOA fees that included water, sewer, trash pickup 2xweek, cable tv and high speed internet by Spectrum and golf with only a 4 dollar trail fee. Come tour our community and see the Wow factor. This is a great find for someone who is a handyman.

21. 2012-08-21
    soldstatus $55,000 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    For Sale By Owner 2/2 in great golf community.

22. 2012-06-25
    listed $59,000 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    For Sale By Owner 2/2 in great golf community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,107 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,107 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,107
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$92
• After-tax cash flow: $2,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+137.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-13 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-11 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-21 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-25 Listed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,107 · +249.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.