16100 SE 253rd Ct · Umatilla, FL 32784

$20,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1986 10,019 sqft lot ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL IN MARION COUNTY – VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY WITH LOT POTENTIAL! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath MBL property sits on a spacious 0.23-acre lot and is conveniently located near Lake Weir, parks, shopping centers, schools, and everyday conveniences. Perfect for cash buyers, fix-and-flip investors, landlords, or handy buyers looking to add value and build equity. This fixer-upper offers strong potential as a rental, resale, or long-term investment opportunity. Surrounded by nature, lakes, and wooded areas, this location is ideal for outdoor enthusiasts who enjoy fishing, boating, camping, ATV riding, and hiking. The property is also near the Ocala National Forest, known for its sceni

Key facts

• Lot potential
• Spacious lot
• Near lake weir

Tags

• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• LOT POTENTIAL
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NEAR LAKE WEIR
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR SHOPPING CENTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Zoning: R4; Living area approx. 920 sq ft, building area 1,160 sq ft
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Tax year 2025 (details not included)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information listed
• Security: No security information listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single story; Faces west
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-level unit
• Exterior features: Lot about 0.23 acres (75 x 135); Road surfaces: dirt, gravel

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $934 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Cap rate 66.3% vs local median 2.9% in Umatilla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#300 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $20,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 66.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 214.41%
• DSCR: 10.54
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24950 SE 167th Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	936 (+2%)	5mo	$110,000	$118	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.06×
• Total profit: $56,324
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.49×
• Total profit: $125,934
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32784

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $271

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $20,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $20,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $20,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $20,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-29
   listed $20,000 Active
6. 1994-06-13
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $412 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $412 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $11,638
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,793
• After-tax cash flow: $8,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Umatilla

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #5132

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.66%
• Current HPI: 352.4197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $412 · +36.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.