Sherman Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$306,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 499 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 498 days

🏗️ New construction. The $306,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $366,542.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $307k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,358 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.12%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,542
• List price: $306,990
• Delta: -16.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22223 Rome Breeze Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+1%)	1mo	$356,840	$157	87
21731 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,331 (+3%)	1mo	$318,990	$137	81
21903 Oia Island Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,201 (-3%)	1mo	$329,990	$150	80
22239 Palladium Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,400 (+6%)	1mo	$294,897	$123	70
21622 Carbonari Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,233 (-1%)	0mo	$305,990	$137	69
19327 Licola Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,377 (+5%)	0mo	$352,990	$149	65
19315 Licola Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,377 (+5%)	1mo	$336,540	$142	65
21634 Carbonari Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+6%)	1mo	$305,990	$128	64
21930 Terre Riviera Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-10%)	0mo	$285,990	$140	59
19222 Saint Green Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,984 (-12%)	0mo	$272,990	$138	55
22110 La Scorza Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+12%)	0mo	$338,990	$134	50
19710 Thurlow Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,070 (-8%)	1mo	$274,995	$133	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-100,163
• Equity at exit: $54,653

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-158,818
• Equity at exit: $31,692

Cash invested: $102,632 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 250 active · 94 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.7 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,982 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,544 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,922
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$458 /mo · $5,498/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,206

Max offer price $290,767

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-270	-5% $-397	+0% $-524	+5% $-650	+10% $-777
Rent	-10% $-725	-5% $-624	+0% $-524	+5% $-423	+10% $-323
Rate	-1.0pp $-339	-0.5pp $-430	base $-524	+0.5pp $-619	+1.0pp $-715

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,635
• Closing costs: $10,996
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	93d	1	0.25mi
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	42d	1	0.34mi
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	37d	1	0.90mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	36d	1	0.93mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,180	$1.36	2d	5	0.94mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	42d	1	1.02mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	0d	1	1.07mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	48d	1	1.08mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	52d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $306,990 Active 499 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $306,990 Active 497 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $306,990 Active 496 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $306,990 Active 495 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $306,990 Active 494 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $306,990 Active 491 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $306,990 Active 489 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $306,990 Active 488 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $306,990 Active 486 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $306,990 Active 484 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $306,990 Active 483 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $306,990 Active 482 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $306,990 Active 481 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $306,990 Active 480 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $306,990 Active 477 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $306,990 Active 476 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $306,990 Active 475 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $306,990 Active 474 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 473 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 472 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $306,990 Active 471 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $306,990 Active 470 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $306,990 Active 469 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $306,990 Active 467 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $306,990 Active 466 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $306,990 Active 465 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $306,990 Active 464 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $306,990 Active 463 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $306,990 Active 462 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $306,990 Active 461 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    price $306,990 Active 460 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $305,990 Active 460 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $305,990 Active 459 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $305,990 Active 458 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $305,990 Active 457 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $310,990 Active 456 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $310,990 Active 454 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $310,990 Active 451 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $310,990 Active 448 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $310,990 Active 447 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $310,990 Active 446 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $310,990 Active 445 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $310,990 Active 443 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    price $310,990 Active 439 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,990 Active 439 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,990 Active 438 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,990 Active 437 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,990 Active 434 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,990 Active 433 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,990 Active 432 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,532
• − Property taxes: −$5,498
• − Insurance: −$1,833
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,442
• − Management: −$2,442
• − Depreciation: −$10,663
• Taxable loss: −$12,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,093
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Sherman Plan home in Houston, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a luxurious owner's suite and open-concept layout, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — New lighting fixtures enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $320,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-27 Listed $333,990 Zillow