Sherman Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$301,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 591 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 590 days

🏗️ New construction. The $301,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $365,183.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-588 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2630 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 591 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,037 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 591 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,183
• List price: $301,990
• Delta: -17.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19523 Valletta Green Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,335 (+3%)	1mo	$299,990	$128	84
21918 Oia Island Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,201 (-3%)	0mo	$329,990	$150	83
19659 Tiramisu Hills Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,331 (+3%)	1mo	$323,390	$139	82
21722 Cappuccino Gardens Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,182 (-4%)	1mo	$315,390	$145	78
19726 Chianti Point Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,132 (-6%)	1mo	$279,910	$131	74
21935 Terre Riviera	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,182 (-4%)	0mo	$299,990	$137	72
22050 Maddaloni View Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-2%)	0mo	$302,990	$136	71
21931 Messina Springs Dr	0.35mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,192 (-3%)	1mo	$339,990	$155	71
21726 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-10%)	0mo	$309,390	$152	69
19426 Saint Green Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,507 (+11%)	1mo	$379,875	$152	69
22048 Ponticelli Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-13%)	1mo	$289,990	$147	47
22131 San Felice Dr	0.51mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,532 (+12%)	0mo	$387,990	$153	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-103,763
• Equity at exit: $54,450

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-166,172
• Equity at exit: $31,574

Cash invested: $102,251 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 283 active · 147 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $319,990 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2630
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,915
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$456 /mo · $5,478/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,195

Max offer price $280,112

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-336	-5% $-462	+0% $-588	+5% $-714	+10% $-840
Rent	-10% $-781	-5% $-685	+0% $-588	+5% $-491	+10% $-394
Rate	-1.0pp $-404	-0.5pp $-495	base $-588	+0.5pp $-683	+1.0pp $-779

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,296
• Closing costs: $10,955
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	84d	1	0.22mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.22mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	184d	1	0.25mi
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	134d	1	0.34mi
20019 Epirus Shores Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2645	$2,499	$0.94	3d	1	0.43mi
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	128d	1	0.90mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	127d	1	0.93mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,126	$1.33	0d	7	0.94mi
22630 August Crow Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$1,826	$0.82	7d	1	0.96mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	134d	1	1.02mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2069	$2,672	$1.29	0d	1	1.07mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	140d	1	1.08mi
22719 Tabberts Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,150	$1.14	3d	1	1.21mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	143d	1	1.26mi
21235 Slate Bend Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,280	$1.06	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $301,990 Active 591 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $301,990 Active 590 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   price $301,990 Active 589 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $296,990 Active 589 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $296,990 Active 588 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $296,990 Active 587 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $296,990 Active 585 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $296,990 Active 584 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $296,990 Active 583 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $296,990 Active 582 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $296,990 Active 581 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $296,990 Active 580 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $296,990 Active 579 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $296,990 Active 578 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $296,990 Active 577 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $296,990 Active 576 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $296,990 Active 575 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $296,990 Active 574 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $296,990 Active 573 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $296,990 Active 572 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $296,990 Active 571 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $296,990 Active 570 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $296,990 Active 569 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $296,990 Active 568 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $296,990 Active 567 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $296,990 Active 566 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $296,990 Active 565 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $296,990 Active 564 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $296,990 Active 563 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $296,990 Active 562 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $296,990 Active 561 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $296,990 Active 560 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $296,990 Active 559 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $296,990 Active 558 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $296,990 Active 557 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $296,990 Active 556 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $296,990 Active 555 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $296,990 Active 554 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $296,990 Active 553 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $296,990 Active 552 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $296,990 Active 551 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $296,990 Active 550 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $296,990 Active 549 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $296,990 Active 548 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $296,990 Active 547 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $296,990 Active 546 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $296,990 Active 545 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $296,990 Active 544 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $296,990 Active 543 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $296,990 Active 542 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,456
• − Property taxes: −$5,478
• − Insurance: −$1,826
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$10,623
• Taxable loss: −$13,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Sherman Plan home in Houston, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a luxurious owner's suite and open-concept layout, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — New lighting fixtures enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $320,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-27 Listed $333,990 Zillow