473 E Sherwood Dr · West Livingston, TX 77351

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Land · 179 Days on market

Built 1996 0.33 ac lot $38/sqft · 57% above area $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable opportunity in the Shelter Cove subdivision! This 1996 mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on two lots in a lakeside community. Enjoy low HOA fees and a private boat ramp with access to Lake Livingston, perfect for boating and fishing enthusiasts. The home needs work and is being sold as-is, making it an excellent option for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With lake access, a quiet neighborhood setting, and room to customize, this property has strong potential as a weekend retreat, rental, or full-time residence.

Key facts

• Two lots
• Private boat ramp
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• SHELTER COVE SUBDIVISION
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• LAKE LIVINGSTON ACCESS
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING
• TWO LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.6% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.71%
• DSCR: 4.55
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $28,750
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 56.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $46,039
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.64×
• Total profit: $108,837
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $404

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $45,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $45,000 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   price $45,000 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Affordable opportunity in the Shelter Cove subdivision! This 1996 mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on two lots in a lakeside community. Enjoy low HOA fees and a private boat ramp with access to Lake Livingston, perfect for boating and fishing enthusiasts. The home needs work and is being sold as-is, making it an excellent option for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With lake access, a quiet neighborhood setting, and room to customize, this property has strong potential as a weekend retreat, rental, or full-time residence.

10. 2026-02-10
    price $50,000 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Affordable opportunity in the Shelter Cove subdivision! This 1996 mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on two lots in a lakeside community. Enjoy low HOA fees and a private boat ramp with access to Lake Livingston, perfect for boating and fishing enthusiasts. The home needs work and is being sold as-is, making it an excellent option for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With lake access, a quiet neighborhood setting, and room to customize, this property has strong potential as a weekend retreat, rental, or full-time residence.

11. 2025-12-12
    listed $55,000 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Affordable opportunity in the Shelter Cove subdivision! This 1996 mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on two lots in a lakeside community. Enjoy low HOA fees and a private boat ramp with access to Lake Livingston, perfect for boating and fishing enthusiasts. The home needs work and is being sold as-is, making it an excellent option for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With lake access, a quiet neighborhood setting, and room to customize, this property has strong potential as a weekend retreat, rental, or full-time residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $9,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,382
• After-tax cash flow: $7,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $55,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.