11533 Themis Ct · Waco, TX 76655

$396,900

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,577 sqft · SingleFamily · 160 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $154/sqft · 29% below area Est $561k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! New and improved! Walk into perfection in this spacious, welcoming floor plan! With a formal study, new open kitchen layout, formal dining area, and living room that flow together seamlessly, this floor plan is sure to please those looking for the ideal family home! Our favorite feature is a little surprise that's on the second story of the home that you'll just have to see for yourself.

Key facts

• Formal dining area
• Open kitchen layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DECORATIVE TILE BACKSPLASH
• LED RECESSED LIGHTING
• SINGLE BASIN KITCHEN SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $397k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castleman Creek El (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 585 students, 51% FRL); Midway Middle (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 1,075 students, 47% FRL); Midway H S (math 66% / reading 67%, grade B, #186 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,648 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $294,022 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $561,456
• List price: $396,900
• Delta: -29.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2109 Slocum Ct	1.36mi	5/3.0	2,528 (-2%)	16mo	$565,000	$223	47
2125 Bond	1.39mi	5/3.0	2,771 (+8%)	5mo	$624,900	$226	46
2131 Bond St	1.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,649 (+3%)	10mo	$629,900	$238	45
2113 Holborn St	1.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,448 (-5%)	6mo	$547,900	$224	45
2143 Holborn St	1.30mi	5/3.0	2,528 (-2%)	20mo	$579,900	$229	43
2205 Paddington Way	1.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,626 (+2%)	17mo	$549,990	$209	39
2321 Paddington Way	1.23mi	5/3.5	3,083 (+20%)	6mo	$579,900	$188	35
2304 Paddington Way	1.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,290 (-11%)	6mo	$585,000	$255	35
2124 Holborn St	1.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,445 (-5%)	19mo	$579,400	$237	33
2013 Slocum Ct	1.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,417 (-6%)	16mo	$499,990	$207	32
428 Warren Rd	1.31mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,001 (+16%)	5mo	$899,900	$300	29
2107 Holborn St	1.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,972 (+15%)	11mo	$599,990	$202	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-91,028
• Equity at exit: $59,179

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-113,539
• Equity at exit: $34,317

Cash invested: $111,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 13 under contract
• Median asking: $369,500 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 73% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +34.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,081
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$496 /mo · $5,954/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,472

Max offer price $336,109

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-146	-5% $-283	+0% $-420	+5% $-557	+10% $-694
Rent	-10% $-652	-5% $-536	+0% $-420	+5% $-304	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-319	base $-420	+0.5pp $-523	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,225
• Closing costs: $11,907
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	139d	1	0.47mi
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	116d	1	0.57mi
3000 Risinger Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	6d	1	0.66mi
3012 Teasdale Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,500	$1.33	0d	1	0.84mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 11533 Themis Ct, Lorena TX 76655
• Financial info: List price $395,900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVACForced-air heating
• Home design: Spec new construction — Plan: The 2516Active listing
• Exterior features: Single-family homeLiving area approximately 2,577

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-29
   days on market $396,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-08-28
   days on market $396,900 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-08-27
   days on market $396,900 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-08-26
   days on market $396,900 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-08-25
   days on market $396,900 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-08-24
   days on market $396,900 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-08-23
   days on market $396,900 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-08-22
   days on market $396,900 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-08-21
   days on market $396,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-08-20
    days on market $396,900 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-08-19
    days on market $396,900 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-08-18
    days on market $396,900 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-08-17
    days on market $396,900 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-08-16
    days on market $396,900 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-08-15
    days on market $396,900 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-08-14
    days on market $396,900 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-08-13
    days on market $396,900 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-08-12
    days on market $396,900 Active 143 DOM
19. 2026-08-11
    days on market $396,900 Active 142 DOM
20. 2026-08-10
    days on market $396,900 Active 141 DOM
21. 2026-08-09
    days on market $396,900 Active 140 DOM
22. 2026-08-08
    days on market $396,900 Active 139 DOM
23. 2026-08-07
    days on market $396,900 Active 138 DOM
24. 2026-08-06
    days on market $396,900 Active 137 DOM
25. 2026-08-05
    days on market $396,900 Active 136 DOM
26. 2026-08-04
    days on market $396,900 Active 135 DOM
27. 2026-08-03
    days on market $396,900 Active 134 DOM
28. 2026-07-31
    days on market $396,900 Active 131 DOM
29. 2026-07-30
    days on market $396,900 Active 130 DOM
30. 2026-07-29
    days on market $396,900 Active 129 DOM
31. 2026-07-27
    days on market $396,900 Active 127 DOM
32. 2026-07-26
    days on market $396,900 Active 126 DOM
33. 2026-07-24
    days on market $396,900 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-07-23
    days on market $396,900 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-07-22
    days on market $396,900 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-07-21
    days on market $396,900 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-07-20
    days on market $396,900 Active 120 DOM
38. 2026-07-18
    days on market $396,900 Active 118 DOM
39. 2026-07-17
    days on market $396,900 Active 117 DOM
40. 2026-07-16
    days on market $396,900 Active 116 DOM
41. 2026-07-14
    days on market $396,900 Active 114 DOM
42. 2026-07-13
    days on market $396,900 Active 113 DOM
43. 2026-07-12
    days on market $396,900 Active 112 DOM
44. 2026-07-12
    days on market $396,900 Active 111 DOM
45. 2026-07-10
    days on market $396,900 Active 110 DOM
46. 2026-07-09
    days on market $396,900 Active 109 DOM
47. 2026-07-08
    days on market $396,900 Active 107 DOM
48. 2026-07-06
    days on market $396,900 Active 106 DOM
49. 2026-07-05
    days on market $396,900 Active 105 DOM
50. 2026-07-05
    days on market $396,900 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,233
• − Property taxes: −$5,954
• − Insurance: −$1,984
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,823
• − Management: −$2,823
• − Depreciation: −$11,546
• Taxable loss: −$12,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,885–$38,655 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fan — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Castleman Creek El D TX #989/4,322 Nat'l #14,382/41,679 Middle Midway Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Midway H S B TX #186/1,632 Nat'l #2,657/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 11533 Themis Ct, Lorena TX 76655
• Financial info: List price $395,900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVACForced-air heating
• Home design: Spec new construction — Plan: The 2516Active listing
• Exterior features: Single-family homeLiving area approximately 2,577

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living area