23430 Wintergate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$221,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 666 Days on market

Built 1980 6,899 sqft lot $164/sqft · 11% above area Est $199k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEVER FLOODED This charming Single-Family property boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a generous 1350 square feet of living space. Never flooded, The home features a LARGE KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED, Ceiling FANS, TILE and Laminate WOOD FLOORS, Fireplace, and a Huge back yard. ROOF 2022. Conveniently located for quick access to schools, shopping, and FM 1960. Built in 1980 on a 6900 square foot lot, 23430 Wintergate is a must-see for those seeking comfort and convenience in a home.

Key facts

• 6,899 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $221k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mildred Jenkins El (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 623 students, 90% FRL); Edward Roberson Middle (math 42% / reading 59%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 791 students, 78% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 666 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $221k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 666 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,572
• List price: $221,000
• Delta: 11.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4555 Algernon Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+1%)	17mo	$205,000	$151	77
4806 Quailgate Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	7mo	$205,000	$160	66
4515 Hickorygate Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-7%)	16mo	$224,900	$179	59
23811 Firegate Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+1%)	23mo	$200,000	$147	57
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+9%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	55
4106 Donalbain Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+0%)	14mo	$239,999	$177	53
23303 Whittaker Way	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (+0%)	12mo	$192,500	$142	51
3902 Adonis Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+8%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	44
4522 Quailgate Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+11%)	20mo	$199,999	$133	42
23114 Goodfellow Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+14%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-32,619
• Equity at exit: $32,952

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-41,362
• Equity at exit: $19,108

Cash invested: $61,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,982/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $221,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $217	+0% $154	+5% $92	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $63	+0% $154	+5% $245	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $210	base $154	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,250
• Closing costs: $6,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $221,000 Active 666 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $221,000 Active 663 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $221,000 Active 662 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $221,000 Active 661 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $221,000 Active 660 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $221,000 Active 658 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $221,000 Active 657 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $221,000 Active 654 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $221,000 Active 653 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $221,000 Active 652 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $221,000 Active 649 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $221,000 Active 648 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $221,000 Active 647 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,000 Active 646 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,000 Active 645 DOM
16. 2024-11-16
    price $221,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    NEVER FLOODED This charming Single-Family property boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a generous 1350 square feet of living space. Never flooded, The home features a LARGE KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED, Ceiling FANS, TILE and Laminate WOOD FLOORS, Fireplace, and a Huge back yard. ROOF 2022. Conveniently located for quick access to schools, shopping, and FM 1960. Built in 1980 on a 6900 square foot lot, 23430 Wintergate is a must-see for those seeking comfort and convenience in a home.

17. 2024-09-30
    price $224,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    NEVER FLOODED This charming Single-Family property boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a generous 1350 square feet of living space. Never flooded, The home features a LARGE KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED, Ceiling FANS, TILE and Laminate WOOD FLOORS, Fireplace, and a Huge back yard. ROOF 2022. Conveniently located for quick access to schools, shopping, and FM 1960. Built in 1980 on a 6900 square foot lot, 23430 Wintergate is a must-see for those seeking comfort and convenience in a home.

18. 2024-08-24
    listed $229,000 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    NEVER FLOODED This charming Single-Family property boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a generous 1350 square feet of living space. Never flooded, The home features a LARGE KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED, Ceiling FANS, TILE and Laminate WOOD FLOORS, Fireplace, and a Huge back yard. ROOF 2022. Conveniently located for quick access to schools, shopping, and FM 1960. Built in 1980 on a 6900 square foot lot, 23430 Wintergate is a must-see for those seeking comfort and convenience in a home.

19. 2018-07-24
    soldstatus
20. 2018-07-23
    soldstatus Sold 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL HOME (1,350 SQUARE FEET) 4 BEDROOMS, TWO FULL BATHROOMS, LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN, EATING AREA AND DOUBLE GARAGE. PROPERTY HAS BEEN COMPLETELY REHABBED INCLUDING PAINTED INSIDE AND OUT. SOME OF THE ITEMS INCLUDED ARE WINDOW SHADES, OUTSIDE WINDOW SCREENS, STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, WASHER AND DRYER. BACKYARD IS ENCLOSED AND FENCED.

21. 2018-07-12
    status Pending 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL HOME (1,350 SQUARE FEET) 4 BEDROOMS, TWO FULL BATHROOMS, LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN, EATING AREA AND DOUBLE GARAGE. PROPERTY HAS BEEN COMPLETELY REHABBED INCLUDING PAINTED INSIDE AND OUT. SOME OF THE ITEMS INCLUDED ARE WINDOW SHADES, OUTSIDE WINDOW SCREENS, STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, WASHER AND DRYER. BACKYARD IS ENCLOSED AND FENCED.

22. 2018-07-09
    listed $142,900 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL HOME (1,350 SQUARE FEET) 4 BEDROOMS, TWO FULL BATHROOMS, LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN, EATING AREA AND DOUBLE GARAGE. PROPERTY HAS BEEN COMPLETELY REHABBED INCLUDING PAINTED INSIDE AND OUT. SOME OF THE ITEMS INCLUDED ARE WINDOW SHADES, OUTSIDE WINDOW SCREENS, STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, WASHER AND DRYER. BACKYARD IS ENCLOSED AND FENCED.

23. 2015-09-21
    soldstatus
24. 2014-03-14
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2014-02-13
    status Pending
26. 2014-02-05
    status Active
27. 2014-01-31
    historical
28. 2014-01-29
    status Active
29. 2013-11-21
    status Pending
30. 2013-10-22
    listed $54,000 Active
31. 2004-09-14
    soldstatus
32. 1999-03-16
    soldstatus
33. 1999-03-01
    soldstatus $58,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,982 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,982 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,379
• − Property taxes: −$4,982
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − Depreciation: −$6,429
• Taxable loss: −$1,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $2,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+275.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-16 Price Changed $221,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $224,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-24 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-07-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-09 Listed $142,900 HARMLS
• 2015-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-02-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-01-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-11-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-22 Listed $54,000 HARMLS
• 2004-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,982 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.