5127 Lake End Dr · East Milton, FL 32583

$94,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1998 0.30 ac lot Est $149k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in growing Milton! Situated on a beautiful wooded lot, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers the chance to finish renovations your way and create the perfect space to call home. Seller has already completed important updates including new wiring and new windows, with sheetrock currently being installed. Bring your vision and complete the finishing touches to make this property your own. Enjoy peaceful mornings or evenings relaxing beneath the large canopy of trees with the sounds of nature all around. Conveniently located near I-10, shopping, dining, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Property is being sold AS IS, cash only. Adjacent Lot 13 is also available for purch

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Close to i-10
• Close to beaches

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• CLOSE TO BEACHES
• CLOSE TO I-10
• LARGE CANOPY OF TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.3 acres (dimensions approx. 46 x 157 x 194 x 222); Building area about 1,620 square feet; Resale property; not new construction; Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Copper electrical wiring; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured or modular home; Single-story
• Construction: Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Cul-de-sac lot; Paved roads with county maintenance; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Living and dining area combined
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups; No water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $996 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 4.6% in East Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 27% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $95k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.97%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,040
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10132 Bellbrook Rd	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,612 (-0%)	17mo	$80,000	$50	60
10028 Bellbrook Rd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+13%)	4mo	$199,900	$109	46
10038 Charlois Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+9%)	23mo	$163,000	$92	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $51,105
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $139,148
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $360/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,049	-5% $1,023	+0% $996	+5% $969	+10% $942
Rent	-10% $839	-5% $918	+0% $996	+5% $1,074	+10% $1,152
Rate	-1.0pp $1,043	-0.5pp $1,020	base $996	+0.5pp $971	+1.0pp $946

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $94,900
17. 2026-02-18
    status Active
18. 2026-01-29
    historical
19. 2026-01-06
    status Active
20. 2025-12-10
    historical Contingent
21. 2025-10-29
    listed $74,900 Active
22. 2010-02-18
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 118.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$360
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $11,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,647
• After-tax cash flow: $9,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+179.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $94,900 PARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $74,900 PARMLS
• 2010-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $360 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.