28520 Holly Ave · Lake Kathryn, FL 32767

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot Est $149k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This fabulous home has 2002 upgrades, new roof, plumbing, carpet, detached garage (insulated), new washer/dryer, new mattresses, all furnishings included in this great price. Hurry, won't last long!Detached garage is new and insulated, some supplies in garage belong to the neighbor. Ask your agent - County is in process of paving dirt road.

Key facts

• Adjacent parcel
• Covered carport
• Workshop shed

Tags

• SCREENED-IN FLORIDA ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• WORKSHOP SHED
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• ADJACENT PARCEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcels; Two lots (total ~0.77 acres)
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Phone available; Public utilities available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Faces southeast; Homesteaded
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#896 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Springs Elementary School (math 63% / reading 58%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 479 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $120k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.98%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,764
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28523 Poinsettia Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	9mo	$159,000	$147	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $97,398
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.78×
• Total profit: $261,556
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32767

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $859/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $537	+0% $503	+5% $470	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $378	-5% $441	+0% $503	+5% $566	+10% $629
Rate	-1.0pp $564	-0.5pp $534	base $503	+0.5pp $472	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-04-05
    listed $120,000 Active
15. 2004-07-23
    soldstatus $55,000
16. 2004-06-30
    soldstatus $55,000 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    This fabulous home has 2002 upgrades, new roof, plumbing, carpet, detached garage (insulated), new washer/dryer, new mattresses, all furnishings included in this great price. Hurry, won't last long!Detached garage is new and insulated, some supplies in garage belong to the neighbor. Ask your agent - County is in process of paving dirt road.

17. 2004-05-10
    listed $59,900 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    This fabulous home has 2002 upgrades, new roof, plumbing, carpet, detached garage (insulated), new washer/dryer, new mattresses, all furnishings included in this great price. Hurry, won't last long!Detached garage is new and insulated, some supplies in garage belong to the neighbor. Ask your agent - County is in process of paving dirt road.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 16.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$859
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,040
• After-tax cash flow: $5,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kathryn

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #26433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Kathryn, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.00%
• Current HPI: 372.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+100.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-10 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $859 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.