2831 Willow Street Pike · Willow Street, PA 17584

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1877 6,970 sqft lot $116/sqft · 48% below area Est $315k · 48% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper in Willow Street! Don't miss this great home in the heart of Willow Street. Sit on the front porch and watch the world go by. With a little TLC, this could be a great home or buy as an investment to rent or flip.

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1877

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Driveway with room for four cars; Total of 5 garage/parking spaces; Crushed stone parking surface
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Oil heating; Electric hot water; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Two levels
• Construction: Stick-built construction with vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Asphalt and metal roof; Building not winterized; Above-grade finished living area (per assessor)
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Oil-fired heating; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Unfinished basement with walkout stairs; Living room listed among primary rooms; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (in-home)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in Willow Street — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#738 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lampeter-Strasburg SD (suburban): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #68 of 539 in PA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1877 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1877 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,209
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -47.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Violet Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,494 (+5%)	2mo	$360,000	$241	83
8 Nolt Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+4%)	6mo	$368,500	$248	72
2822 Willow Street Pike	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+11%)	8mo	$320,000	$202	68
323 Edgemont Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,384 (-3%)	5mo	$342,500	$247	68
109 Woodlawn Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,333 (-6%)	5mo	$376,000	$282	64
313 Crestline Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,325 (-7%)	12mo	$305,000	$230	62
335 Nolt Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+5%)	12mo	$360,000	$242	62
8 Kreider Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,328 (-7%)	12mo	$347,000	$261	61
26 Beaver Valley Pike	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,372 (-4%)	1mo	$300,000	$219	58
11 Dennis Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,535 (+8%)	8mo	$345,678	$225	54
12 Rees Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,595 (+12%)	10mo	$330,000	$207	53
18 Baumgardner Rd	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,269 (-11%)	12mo	$315,000	$248	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,751
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $20,062
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17584

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,354/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,536

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $359	+0% $313	+5% $266	+10% $219
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $236	+0% $313	+5% $389	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $355	base $313	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2843 Willow Street Pike N Willow Street, PA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	15d	1	0.09mi
301 Cobblestone Dr Willow Street, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1235	$2,625	$2.13	14d	22	0.57mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $179,900 Active 225-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,354 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,354 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,354
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$300
• After-tax cash flow: $3,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lampeter-Strasburg SD
• NCES district ID: 4213110
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $66,661
• Composite: 52.19/100
• National rank: #1610
• State rank: #68 of 539 in PA

Livability — Willow Street

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #7390

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Street, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 11,646
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,646
• Household income: $108,723
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 511.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.51%
• Current HPI: 256.8264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,354 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.