2000 W W Humble St · Baytown, TX 77520

$152,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2011 6,298 sqft lot $136/sqft · 10% below area Est $169k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,298 sq ft lot
• Built 2011
• Listed 151 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carver El (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 636 students, 91% FRL); Baytown J H (math 35% / reading 29%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 743 students, 83% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 61% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,363 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.93%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,422
• List price: $152,000
• Delta: -10.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1909 W Texas Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	1mo	$195,000	$181	88
1809 Superior St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-8%)	23mo	$179,900	$175	63
1902 W Gulf St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+15%)	11mo	$129,999	$101	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-35,651
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-50,948
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,008/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,512

Max offer price $127,363

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-96	+0% $-139	+5% $-182	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-192	+0% $-139	+5% $-87	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-101	base $-139	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1601 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1190	$1,499	$1.26	4d	5	0.75mi
1607 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,025	$1.01	45d	1	0.76mi
811 Barrymore Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	7d	1	0.77mi
1305 Memorial Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	845	$1,193	$1.41	26d	3	0.94mi
508 Forrest St Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	7d	1	1.17mi
516 William Ave Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	45d	1	1.26mi
510 Williams Ave Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$1,599	$2.29	4d	5	1.26mi
3419 Illinois St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,195	$1.12	1d	1	1.35mi
3208 Nebraska St Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	858	$1,100	$1.28	22d	1	1.40mi
3300 Rollingbrook Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,415	$1.73	1d	15	1.44mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $152,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $152,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $152,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-01-21
    listed $155,000 Active
15. 2026-01-18
    historical
16. 2025-08-18
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2022-09-01
    soldstatus
18. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2022-08-30
    status Pending
20. 2022-08-26
    status Option Pending
21. 2022-08-23
    status Active
22. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus
23. 2022-05-15
    status Pending
24. 2022-05-14
    status Option Pending
25. 2022-05-13
    status Pending
26. 2022-05-12
    historical
27. 2022-05-10
    price $150,000
28. 2022-04-02
    listed $170,000 Active
29. 2016-06-10
    soldstatus
30. 2016-06-09
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2016-06-03
    status Pending
32. 2016-05-23
    status Option Pending
33. 2016-05-17
    listed $67,000 Active
34. 2013-08-01
    historical
35. 2013-07-31
    status Active
36. 2013-07-31
    historical
37. 2013-07-01
    status Active
38. 2013-07-01
    historical
39. 2013-03-11
    price $65,000
40. 2013-02-15
    price $73,000
41. 2012-12-10
    listed $79,000 Active
42. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$4,008
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable loss: −$4,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,018
• After-tax cash flow: $-655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.2% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-08-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-05-10 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-02 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2016-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-17 Listed $67,000 HARMLS
• 2013-08-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-07-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-07-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-03-11 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2013-02-15 Price Changed $73,000 HARMLS
• 2012-12-10 Listed $79,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,008 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.