508 Mill St · Ellisville, MS 39437

$55,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,169 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1940 $47/sqft · 20% below area Est $97k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Ellisville located in the South Jones School District. Offering approximately 1,650 square feet, this property features a functional floor plan and sits on a spacious 0.59-acre lot. Built in 1940, the home has classic character with plenty of potential. Ideal for buyers looking for an affordable home, rental property, or investment opportunity. Convenient location with easy access to town amenities. Priced to sell—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Built 1940
• Listed 133 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.04%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,834
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -43.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 South Deason St	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (+6%)	22mo	$39,500	$32	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $41,016
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $100,120
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39437

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,169/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $517

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $55,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,000 Active 114 DOM
19. 2026-02-05
    listed $59,000 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Ellisville located in the South Jones School District. Offering approximately 1,650 square feet, this property features a functional floor plan and sits on a spacious 0.59-acre lot. Built in 1940, the home has classic character with plenty of potential. Ideal for buyers looking for an affordable home, rental property, or investment opportunity. Convenient location with easy access to town amenities. Priced to sell—schedule your showing today!

20. 2025-09-06
    status Active
21. 2025-09-06
    price $59,000
22. 2025-08-13
    status Pending
23. 2025-07-27
    status Active
24. 2025-07-12
    status Pending
25. 2025-07-08
    listed $50,000 Active
26. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus
27. 2017-08-13
    listed $59,500
28. 2005-10-11
    soldstatus
29. 2004-12-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,169
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $9,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,180
• After-tax cash flow: $7,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,051
• Composite: 33.24/100
• National rank: #5520
• State rank: #40 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #13645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellisville, MS
• City population: 12,287
• Population (ZIP): 12,287

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,800 people
• By 2030: 68,773 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 68,087 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 66,241 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 58,600 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 45,744 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 26.2% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+42.2 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.84%
• Current HPI: 142.2369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $59,000 HAAR
• 2025-09-06 Relisted — LBOR
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $59,000 LBOR
• 2025-08-13 Pending — LBOR
• 2025-07-27 Relisted — LBOR
• 2025-07-12 Pending — LBOR
• 2025-07-08 Listed $50,000 LBOR
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2017-08-13 Listed $59,500 HAAR
• 2005-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,169 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.