8187 Duncan Gap Rd · Wise, VA 24293

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

0.74 ac lot $38/sqft · 48% below area Est $68k · 48% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage style home with awesome mountain views. The home sits on . 74 acres of land with 2 sheds. Awesome mountain views from the front porch. With some tlc this home could make for a cozy cottage style home. Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information in this listing. Subject to errors and Omissions.

Key facts

• Front porch
• .74 acres
• 2 sheds

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FRONT PORCH
• 2 SHEDS
• .74 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 5.1% in Wise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#99 in VA, #3,153 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.25%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,500
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -48.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $28,782
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.08×
• Total profit: $69,412
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24293

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $135/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $265

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $35,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,333 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,333 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $37,333 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,333 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $37,333 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,333 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,333 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,333 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $37,333 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Cottage style home with awesome mountain views. The home sits on . 74 acres of land with 2 sheds. Awesome mountain views from the front porch. With some tlc this home could make for a cozy cottage style home. Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information in this listing. Subject to errors and Omissions.

17. 2026-04-26
    price $40,000 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Cottage style home with awesome mountain views. The home sits on . 74 acres of land with 2 sheds. Awesome mountain views from the front porch. With some tlc this home could make for a cozy cottage style home. Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information in this listing. Subject to errors and Omissions.

18. 2026-01-29
    listed $50,000 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Cottage style home with awesome mountain views. The home sits on . 74 acres of land with 2 sheds. Awesome mountain views from the front porch. With some tlc this home could make for a cozy cottage style home. Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information in this listing. Subject to errors and Omissions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $135 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $287 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 112.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$135
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $6,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,509
• After-tax cash flow: $4,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wise

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,622

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.49%
• Current HPI: 153.7377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-25.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $37,333 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $40,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $50,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $135 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.