Rio Grande Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$325,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,507 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The wonderful, two-story Rio Grande home features an open-concept layout that is ideal for most any lifestyle. . Upon entry, you are met with a private study room, a walk-in utility room, a closet, and access to your two-car garage. If you need extra storage space to store holiday decorations, tools, or even another car, opt to tack on an additional five feet for a two-and a half car garage or a full three-car garage! You are soon met with the soul of the home - the massive family room with two-story ceilings serving as the perfect place for entertaining, as well as the conjoined kitchen and breakfast area providing optimal convenience. The kitchen is fully equipped with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, and industry-leading appliances. If you desire more counterspace, you have the option of including a kitchen island or extra cabinets! The high bar in the kitchen is ideal for the kids to eat breakfast in the mornings, and opens up to the family room, full embracing the open-concept feel. For the outdoor enthusiast, this home has the option of a spacious extended covered patio in the backyard. Head across the kitchen where you will discover the convenient downstairs powder room, and the secluded master suite. Your master bathroom is complete with cultured marble countertops, the option for dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Upgrade the master bathroom by opting for a luxury bathtub with stand alone shower or a master super shower instead! Follow up

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 953 days

🏗️ New construction. The $325,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $443,452.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,303 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.97%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,452
• List price: $325,990
• Delta: -26.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2709 Calypso Pl	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,452 (-2%)	2mo	$229,000	$93	77
2819 Arbor Edge Xing	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,204 (-12%)	1mo	$357,000	$162	75
2714 Arbor Edge Xing	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,811 (+12%)	2mo	$377,000	$134	72
2725 Arbor Edge Xing	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,174 (-13%)	0mo	$339,500	$156	69
2417 Arbor Edge Xing	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,204 (-12%)	0mo	$345,000	$157	67
2138 Open Prairie Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (-3%)	3mo	$349,900	$143	55
2906 Mariner Island Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-11%)	2mo	$388,990	$175	52
2809 Palm Branch Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (-5%)	2mo	$425,990	$179	52
3005 Mariner Island Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-11%)	1mo	$386,990	$174	51
13410 Harbor Point Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,667 (+6%)	2mo	$463,990	$174	49
13423 Harbor Point Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,731 (+9%)	1mo	$445,990	$163	48
2221 Lake Mist Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,178 (-13%)	0mo	$326,900	$150	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-139,251
• Equity at exit: $66,120

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-200,626
• Equity at exit: $38,342

Cash invested: $124,166 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,573 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,326
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$554 /mo · $6,652/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-1,098

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,963

Max offer price $284,517

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,863
• Closing costs: $13,304
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	0.32mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	5d	1	0.46mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	11d	1	0.64mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	11d	1	0.84mi
114 Mustang Stampede Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,050	$1.17	1d	1	0.93mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,990 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,990 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,990 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,990 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,990 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,990 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,990 Active 943 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,990 Active 942 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $325,990 Active 939 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,990 Active 938 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 937 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 936 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,990 Active 935 DOM
14. 2023-12-05
    price $325,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The wonderful, two-story Rio Grande home features an open-concept layout that is ideal for most any lifestyle. . Upon entry, you are met with a private study room, a walk-in utility room, a closet, and access to your two-car garage. If you need extra storage space to store holiday decorations, tools, or even another car, opt to tack on an additional five feet for a two-and a half car garage or a full three-car garage! You are soon met with the soul of the home - the massive family room with two-story ceilings serving as the perfect place for entertaining, as well as the conjoined kitchen and breakfast area providing optimal convenience. The kitchen is fully equipped with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, and industry-leading appliances. If you desire more counterspace, you have the option of including a kitchen island or extra cabinets! The high bar in the kitchen is ideal for the kids to eat breakfast in the mornings, and opens up to the family room, full embracing the open-concept feel. For the outdoor enthusiast, this home has the option of a spacious extended covered patio in the backyard. Head across the kitchen where you will discover the convenient downstairs powder room, and the secluded master suite. Your master bathroom is complete with cultured marble countertops, the option for dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Upgrade the master bathroom by opting for a luxury bathtub with stand alone shower or a master super shower instead! Follow up

15. 2023-11-08
    listed $337,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The wonderful, two-story Rio Grande home features an open-concept layout that is ideal for most any lifestyle. . Upon entry, you are met with a private study room, a walk-in utility room, a closet, and access to your two-car garage. If you need extra storage space to store holiday decorations, tools, or even another car, opt to tack on an additional five feet for a two-and a half car garage or a full three-car garage! You are soon met with the soul of the home - the massive family room with two-story ceilings serving as the perfect place for entertaining, as well as the conjoined kitchen and breakfast area providing optimal convenience. The kitchen is fully equipped with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, and industry-leading appliances. If you desire more counterspace, you have the option of including a kitchen island or extra cabinets! The high bar in the kitchen is ideal for the kids to eat breakfast in the mornings, and opens up to the family room, full embracing the open-concept feel. For the outdoor enthusiast, this home has the option of a spacious extended covered patio in the backyard. Head across the kitchen where you will discover the convenient downstairs powder room, and the secluded master suite. Your master bathroom is complete with cultured marble countertops, the option for dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Upgrade the master bathroom by opting for a luxury bathtub with stand alone shower or a master super shower instead! Follow up

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,840
• − Property taxes: −$6,652
• − Insurance: −$3,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − Depreciation: −$12,900
• Taxable loss: −$21,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Texas City, TX, is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-05 Price Changed $325,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $337,990 Zillow