8095 County Road 408 · Lyons, TX 77836

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1935 2.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the seclusion and privacy of your own personal retreat just minutes from Lake Somerville and the Somerville Wildlife Management Area, where you can enjoy hunting, fishing, or just observing the diverse wildlife in the area. Admire the beautiful views from this three bedroom, one bath house as you enjoy the peace and quiet of country living. This home sits on two secluded acres with beautiful views. With the right touch, this home can reach its full potential to become your private sanctuary.

Key facts

• Private sanctuary
• Beautiful views
• Two secluded acres

Tags

• TWO SECLUDED ACRES
• PRIVATE SANCTUARY
• BEAUTIFUL VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Exterior features: 2-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($625/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Lyons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,919 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-25,017
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,412
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77836

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,648/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $102	+0% $52	+5% $3	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $-11	+0% $52	+5% $115	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $97	base $52	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2009-03-04
    soldstatus
19. 2000-03-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,648
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$551
• After-tax cash flow: $1,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,453
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #6936
• State rank: #579 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lyons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 370
• Population (ZIP): 12,469

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 10% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.96%
• Current HPI: 187.5385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $175,000 BCSRMLS
• 2009-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,648 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.