5929 Antonio Pl · Geronimo, TX 78155

$208,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,627 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,187 sqft lot 2-car garage $128/sqft · 13% below area Est $239k · 13% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience refined living at 5929 Antonio PL, Seguin TX 78155, a distinguished single-family residence constructed in 2022. This property offers a compelling blend of contemporary design and functional elegance, promising an elevated lifestyle for its discerning occupants. This residence includes a private two-car garage, providing secure parking and additional storage capacity. We invite you to schedule a private viewing to fully appreciate the sophisticated appeal of this exceptional Seguin property.

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,223 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,354
• List price: $208,000
• Delta: -13.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5907 Texas Spur	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,627 (0%)	0mo	$190,000	$117	95
241 Pastar Fls	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+4%)	0mo	$197,999	$117	84
223 Pastar Fls	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+4%)	1mo	$197,999	$117	83
5547 Alope Way	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-3%)	1mo	$209,999	$133	75
5510 Alope Way	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-3%)	1mo	$208,999	$133	75
245 Pastar Fls	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-9%)	0mo	$185,999	$125	75
5530 Alope Way	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-3%)	0mo	$205,999	$131	74
229 Pastar Fls	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-9%)	0mo	$185,999	$125	74
5527 Alope Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-2%)	1mo	$208,999	$131	73
9042 Colonel Trl	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-9%)	1mo	$208,999	$141	56
5535 Alope Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-13%)	1mo	$194,999	$138	54
5519 Alope Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-14%)	1mo	$217,999	$155	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-48,546
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,705
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 47 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $220,000 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 193 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1603
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,927/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $171,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-149	+0% $-208	+5% $-267	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-280	+0% $-208	+5% $-137	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-155	base $-208	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5909 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,545	$1.07	9d	1	0.05mi
5912 Texas Spur Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	9d	1	0.05mi
9129 Navarro Vis Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,800	$1.11	9d	1	0.08mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	93d	1	0.08mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	9d	1	0.08mi
9105 Navarro Vis Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,895	$1.00	15d	1	0.12mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	9d	1	0.14mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	13d	1	0.14mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	52d	1	0.27mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	9d	1	0.27mi
9263 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,780	$0.91	9d	1	0.28mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	93d	1	0.29mi
171 Pastar Fls Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1897	$1,795	$0.95	9d	1	0.29mi
9230 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,795	$0.92	65d	1	0.29mi
9258 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,595	$1.11	9d	1	0.31mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	9d	1	0.38mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	34d	1	0.41mi
8908 San Carlos Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2142	$1,950	$0.91	9d	1	0.51mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Lifetime HOA) with $50 monthly feeCommunity clubhousePlaygroundPoolSidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with front-facing garageInside entrance from garageLighted parkingTotal of 4 parking spaces (2 covered)
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPhone availablePublic sewerPublic water
• Home design: Single-story homeFaces northwestResale property
• Construction: Built by owner (year built source: owner)Cement siding with stone veneerAsbestos shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yardFront yardBack yard fencingCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopDisposalGranite countersBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityGranite countersVinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $208,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $208,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $208,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $208,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $208,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $208,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $208,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $208,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $208,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $208,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $208,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $208,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $208,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $208,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $208,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $208,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $208,000 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $208,000 Active 70 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $208,000 Active 69 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $220,000 Active 68 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $220,000 Active 67 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $220,000 Active 66 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $220,000 Active 65 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 63 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 61 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $220,000 Active 60 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 59 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 57 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 56 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 55 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $220,000 Active 51 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $220,000 Active 50 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $220,000 Active 48 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $220,000 Active 42 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 33 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,927 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,927 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$4,927
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$6,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,135–$24,405 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic upgrades and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro Int D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 51/100

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Lifetime HOA) with $50 monthly feeCommunity clubhousePlaygroundPoolSidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with front-facing garageInside entrance from garageLighted parkingTotal of 4 parking spaces (2 covered)
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPhone availablePublic sewerPublic water
• Home design: Single-story homeFaces northwestResale property
• Construction: Built by owner (year built source: owner)Cement siding with stone veneerAsbestos shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yardFront yardBack yard fencingCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopDisposalGranite countersBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityGranite countersVinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall

Price history

+11791.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $220,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-04 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-02 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-01 Rental Removed $1,850 ACTRIS
• 2024-10-07 Listed for Rent $1,850 ACTRIS

Property tax history

+96.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,927 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.