222 Meadowlark Dr · Wills Point, TX 75169

$439,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2022 0.30 ac lot $196/sqft · 27% above area Est $345k · 27% over $24/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning home in the gated community of Willow Lake Estates will wow you with its striking modern curb appeal and architectural design. A beautiful blend of stone and stucco creates a bold exterior, while the wide circular driveway provides both convenience and an elegant entrance. Step inside to soaring ceilings, modern lighting, and an expansive living space anchored by a dramatic floor-to-ceiling fireplace. The open-concept layout flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining areas, creating the perfect environment for entertaining and everyday living. The chef-inspired kitchen is truly the heart of the home, featuring a massive waterfall island with generous breakfast bar seating and coordinating Café appliances for an elevated culinary experience. The dining area is enhanced by a bold black accent wall, adding depth and contemporary sophistication while maintaining a warm, inviting atmosphere. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat, while the spa-like ensuite bath impresses with a freestanding soaking tub, oversized glass-enclosed shower, and beautifully coordinated finishes. Every detail throughout the home has been thoughtfully curated for a cohesive, modern aesthetic. With four bedrooms total—one ideal for a home office—there is flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Step outside to enjoy a generously sized covered patio complete with ceiling fans and an extended deck, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. A storage shed and backyard play system convey with the property, adding even more value and functionality. All this, plus access to the wonderful amenities of Willow Lake, including a community park and dock, makes this home the complete package. Modern luxury, functional design, and exceptional community living—this one truly has it all.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Backyard play system
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• WIDE CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• MASSIVE WATERFALL ISLAND
• GENEROUSLY SIZED COVERED PATIO
• BACKYARD PLAY SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($92k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $400k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.3% vs local median 2.4% in Wills Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,174 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Earnest O Woods Int (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 589 students, 56% FRL); Wills Point Middle (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 407 students, 68% FRL); Wills Point H S (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 803 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $400,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.91%
• DSCR: 4.33
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,447
• List price: $439,900
• Delta: 27.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $418,572
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.08×
• Total profit: $995,703
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,509/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,834
• Net cashflow: $7,689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,764

Max offer price $439,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,938	-5% $7,813	+0% $7,689	+5% $7,564	+10% $7,440
Rent	-10% $6,622	-5% $7,156	+0% $7,689	+5% $8,222	+10% $8,755
Rate	-1.0pp $7,910	-0.5pp $7,801	base $7,689	+0.5pp $7,575	+1.0pp $7,459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
478 Westshore Dr Unit 1514797P Wills Point, TX	5.0	3.0	1560	$13,496	$8.65	24d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $439,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $439,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $439,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,900 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $439,900 Active 1829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1829 chars)

    This stunning home in the gated community of Willow Lake Estates will wow you with its striking modern curb appeal and architectural design. A beautiful blend of stone and stucco creates a bold exterior, while the wide circular driveway provides both convenience and an elegant entrance. Step inside to soaring ceilings, modern lighting, and an expansive living space anchored by a dramatic floor-to-ceiling fireplace. The open-concept layout flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining areas, creating the perfect environment for entertaining and everyday living. The chef-inspired kitchen is truly the heart of the home, featuring a massive waterfall island with generous breakfast bar seating and coordinating Café appliances for an elevated culinary experience. The dining area is enhanced by a bold black accent wall, adding depth and contemporary sophistication while maintaining a warm, inviting atmosphere. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat, while the spa-like ensuite bath impresses with a freestanding soaking tub, oversized glass-enclosed shower, and beautifully coordinated finishes. Every detail throughout the home has been thoughtfully curated for a cohesive, modern aesthetic. With four bedrooms total—one ideal for a home office—there is flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Step outside to enjoy a generously sized covered patio complete with ceiling fans and an extended deck, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. A storage shed and backyard play system convey with the property, adding even more value and functionality. All this, plus access to the wonderful amenities of Willow Lake, including a community park and dock, makes this home the complete package. Modern luxury, functional design, and exceptional community living—this one truly has it all.

17. 2026-02-04
    historical
18. 2026-01-13
    price $444,500
19. 2025-10-06
    price $448,500
20. 2025-09-15
    price $449,000
21. 2025-08-26
    listed $469,000 Active
22. 2025-08-11
    historical
23. 2025-08-09
    listed $469,000
24. 2024-04-17
    soldstatus
25. 2024-04-12
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2024-03-23
    status Pending
27. 2024-03-14
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2024-03-08
    price $395,000
29. 2024-01-31
    listed $420,000 Active
30. 2023-09-13
    historical Active Option Contract
31. 2023-09-08
    price $425,000
32. 2023-06-15
    price $435,000
33. 2023-06-07
    price $444,000
34. 2023-06-07
    status Active
35. 2023-06-03
    historical Active Option Contract
36. 2023-05-11
    price $449,500
37. 2023-04-05
    price $459,500
38. 2023-03-16
    price $467,999
39. 2023-02-24
    price $475,000
40. 2023-02-03
    listed $489,000 Active
41. 2023-01-23
    historical
42. 2022-11-10
    listed $495,000 Active
43. 2001-06-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,509 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,050 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,542/yr (+$212/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $161,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$5,509
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,956
• − Management: −$12,956
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable income: $90,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21,745
• After-tax cash flow: $70,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wills Point

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1174
• US rank: #20542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,744
• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $439,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $444,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $448,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $449,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $469,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-09 Listed $469,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-03-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-03-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-03-08 Price Changed $395,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-31 Listed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-15 Price Changed $435,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-07 Price Changed $444,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-06-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $449,500 NTREIS
• 2023-04-05 Price Changed $459,500 NTREIS
• 2023-03-16 Price Changed $467,999 NTREIS
• 2023-02-24 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-03 Listed $489,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-11-10 Listed $495,000 NTREIS
• 2001-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+59.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,509 · -20.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.