8600 Savory Walk Dr · Connerton, FL 34637

$410,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,455 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 215 Days on market

Built 2016 7,236 sqft lot Est $427k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! Special Buyer Incentive: When financing with SunPoint Home Loans LLC (NMLS #1559260), buyers may receive a free appraisal (up to $800 value) and a lender-paid 1-0 temporary rate buydown (reducing the interest rate by 1% in the first year with no seller-paid concessions required). Stunning Luxury Home in Resort-Style Community with Oversized Lanai and Private Yard! Welcome to this beautifully appointed 5-bedroom, 3-bath residence offering the perfect blend of space, functionality, and high-end finishes. Step into the heart of the home — a chef-inspired kitchen featuring an expansive breakfast bar, sleek stainless steel appliances with a gas range, designer tile back

Key facts

• Oversized lanai
• Private yard
• Gas range

Tags

• OVERSIZED LANAI
• PRIVATE YARD
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a planned community (MPUD zoning)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment approx. $1,538
• HOA & community: Community managed by Castle Management; HOA required, monthly dues approximately $90.33 (about $271 quarterly); HOA covers pool, management and recreational facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, park, playground, basketball court, tennis courts, dog park, street lights, irrigation with reclaimed water, deed restrictions; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number limit applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with rear-facing garage door; 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sprinkler meter; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; West-facing
• Construction: Block foundation; Block, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built by Lennar Homes (Austin model)
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened rear porch; Rear porch with sliding doors; Exterior lighting; Vinyl fencing; Mature landscaping with trees; Landscaped lot with sidewalk and paved surfaces; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen open to family room; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry room inside on upper level; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $361k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $288k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.73%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $427,170
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21046 Passive Porch Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0	2,455 (0%)	4mo	$390,000	$159	93
21143 Passive Porch Dr	0.21mi	5/3.0	2,455 (0%)	5mo	$405,000	$165	86
21430 Starry Eyes Way	0.62mi	5/3.5	2,492 (+2%)	4mo	$410,000	$165	63
8448 Lagerfeld Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,355 (-4%)	4mo	$490,000	$208	63
8442 Lagerfeld Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,391 (-3%)	12mo	$415,000	$174	58
8229 Faire Frost Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-5%)	2mo	$415,000	$178	57
20537 Lace Cascade Rd	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,594 (+6%)	11mo	$564,000	$217	52
8129 Lagerfeld Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,564 (+4%)	4mo	$430,000	$168	51
21462 Wistful Yearn Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-5%)	3mo	$417,000	$179	50
21529 Southern Charm Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,284 (-7%)	3mo	$495,000	$217	50
21170 Wistful Yearn Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,775 (+13%)	4mo	$462,500	$167	38
8145 Lagerfeld Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,727 (+11%)	4mo	$391,600	$144	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-30,191
• Equity at exit: $88,477

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $10,796
• Equity at exit: $84,237

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,214/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,496

Max offer price $410,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $281	+0% $165	+5% $49	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $19	+0% $165	+5% $312	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $270	base $165	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8947 Garden Party Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.5	3110	$4,000	$1.29	13d	1	0.72mi
21030 Green Wing Ct Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,185	$1.12	25d	1	0.80mi
7655 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2070	$3,100	$1.50	12d	1	0.89mi
7442 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,470	$1.19	25d	1	1.10mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	19d	1	1.26mi
21107 Bircholm Ct Unit NA Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	3200	$3,950	$1.23	19d	1	1.26mi
19736 Lonesome Pine Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2634	$2,850	$1.08	25d	1	1.35mi
19736 Lonesome Pine Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2634	$2,850	$1.08	6d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,000 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $410,000 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $410,000 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $410,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $410,000
15. 2026-03-25
    price $415,000
16. 2026-01-23
    price $420,000
17. 2026-01-23
    status Active
18. 2025-08-21
    price $429,500
19. 2025-07-25
    listed $430,000 Active
20. 2025-05-03
    historical
21. 2025-05-02
    price $432,300
22. 2025-04-24
    price $432,500
23. 2025-03-13
    price $438,600
24. 2025-02-27
    price $439,100
25. 2025-02-21
    price $439,300
26. 2025-02-13
    price $439,500
27. 2025-02-06
    price $439,700
28. 2025-01-17
    price $439,900
29. 2024-08-31
    status Active
30. 2024-08-28
    price $464,995
31. 2024-08-20
    status Active
32. 2024-08-09
    price $469,800
33. 2024-06-20
    price $469,900
34. 2024-06-07
    listed $474,700 Active
35. 2023-11-30
    price $469,450
36. 2023-11-30
    historical
37. 2023-11-10
    price $469,550
38. 2023-10-25
    price $479,700
39. 2023-10-13
    price $481,995
40. 2023-10-04
    status Active
41. 2023-10-04
    price $482,995
42. 2023-09-06
    status Pending
43. 2023-08-23
    price $485,000
44. 2023-08-17
    price $495,000
45. 2023-08-03
    listed $499,900 Active
46. 2019-06-10
    soldstatus $287,500
47. 2019-06-03
    soldstatus $287,500 Sold
48. 2019-04-15
    status Pending
49. 2019-04-11
    listed $299,000 Active
50. 2017-01-06
    soldstatus $254,990 Sold

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,214 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,214 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$4,214
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,557
• − Management: −$3,557
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$4,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,172
• After-tax cash flow: $3,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-92.4% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $415,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $420,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $429,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Listed $430,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $432,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $432,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $438,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $439,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $439,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $439,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $439,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $439,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $464,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $469,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $469,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-07 Listed $474,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $469,450 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $469,550 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $479,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $481,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Price Changed $482,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-23 Price Changed $485,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-17 Price Changed $495,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-03 Listed $499,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $287,500 Public Records
• 2019-06-03 Sold (MLS) $287,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-11 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-06 Sold (MLS) $254,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Price Changed $254,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-05 Listed $258,890 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $312,500 Public Records
• 2015-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $5,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,214 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.