13691 Lawton Ln · Gulfport, MS 39503

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,207 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2011 6,098 sqft lot Est $204k · at est. $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable Gulfport home situated on a spacious lot in Hidden Oaks features three bedrooms, two full baths, brick floors, granite counters, covered patio, privacy fenced yard and more. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Brick floors
• Open concept kitchen
• Covered back patio

Tags

• BRICK FLOORS
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River Oaks Elementary School (math 34% / reading 30%, grade F, #172 of 375 statewide, top 48%, 502 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Harrison County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $205k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,594 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,983
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13691 Lawton Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+1%)	1mo	$205,000	$168	94
13637 Lawton Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-3%)	2mo	$199,000	$169	86
13727 Churchwood Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+2%)	4mo	$219,900	$178	86
13395 Libby Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+5%)	4mo	$198,000	$156	69
13276 Tortoise Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+9%)	2mo	$222,000	$169	68
13454 Addison Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+8%)	5mo	$189,999	$146	67
13292 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+9%)	4mo	$223,000	$170	66
14037 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+12%)	3mo	$249,900	$185	60
14111 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	0mo	$248,900	$179	54
13150 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+10%)	5mo	$225,000	$169	50
13700 Three Rivers Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-10%)	3mo	$159,900	$146	49
13102 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,318 (+9%)	2mo	$209,000	$159	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,775
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $30,014
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $200	+0% $142	+5% $84	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $72	+0% $142	+5% $213	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $194	base $142	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14179 Debra Barbee Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,849	$1.34	22d	1	0.45mi
13498 Dee Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	0.79mi
13459 Gorman St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,649	$1.65	44d	1	0.81mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	22d	1	0.93mi
13727 Fox Hill Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	1.07mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $205,000 Active
3. 2020-03-20
   soldstatus
4. 2020-03-19
   soldstatus 216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (216 chars)

   This adorable Gulfport home situated on a spacious lot in Hidden Oaks features three bedrooms, two full baths, brick floors, granite counters, covered patio, privacy fenced yard and more. Schedule your showing today!

5. 2020-01-23
   listed $139,900 216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (216 chars)

   This adorable Gulfport home situated on a spacious lot in Hidden Oaks features three bedrooms, two full baths, brick floors, granite counters, covered patio, privacy fenced yard and more. Schedule your showing today!

6. 2015-12-01
   soldstatus $121,000
7. 2015-11-30
   soldstatus 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Well Maintained Home!!! Close to the new River Oaks Elementary!!! Fenced backyard. Low traffic street on dead end. 2.5'' Faux wood blinds throughout.10 year termite guarantee (transferable to new owners) Playground stays with house. Cathedral ceilings in Living Rm. Box ceiling in Master Bedroom.

8. 2015-04-12
   listed $125,000 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Well Maintained Home!!! Close to the new River Oaks Elementary!!! Fenced backyard. Low traffic street on dead end. 2.5'' Faux wood blinds throughout.10 year termite guarantee (transferable to new owners) Playground stays with house. Cathedral ceilings in Living Rm. Box ceiling in Master Bedroom.

9. 2011-04-01
   soldstatus
10. 2011-03-31
    soldstatus
11. 2011-01-10
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$1,769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$425
• After-tax cash flow: $2,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+57.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Listed $205,000 MLSU
• 2020-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-01-23 Listed $139,900 MLSU
• 2015-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-04-12 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2011-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-01-10 Listed $129,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,072 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.