Modern Prairie Plan · Lubbock, TX 79407

$225,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 825 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Our 1,600 square-foot Modern Prairie affordable new home greets you with stunning curb appeal featuring a brick exterior with cedar accents and a grand tower entryway. This thoughtful layout of our 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom open-concept floor plan allows for the most efficient and affordable use of space. The home's kitchen offers an island with bar seating, an enclosed pantry, and separate counter space perfect for a coffee bar. The secluded master bedroom boasts a large walk-in closet and en suite bathroom with a double vanity. Visit our New Home Center to schedule your VIP tour of this brand new home!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 825 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-398/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 825 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,456 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 825 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-44,368
• Equity at exit: $33,690

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-63,148
• Equity at exit: $19,536

Cash invested: $63,266 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,935 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$282 /mo · $3,389/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $221,148

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $45	+0% $-33	+5% $-111	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-110	+0% $-33	+5% $43	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $24	base $-33	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,488
• Closing costs: $6,778
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	15d	1	0.18mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	22d	1	0.18mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	45d	1	0.22mi
2511 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	22d	1	0.27mi
2505 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	22d	1	0.27mi
2509 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	0.27mi
2515 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	22d	1	0.27mi
2055 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	15d	1	0.29mi
2163 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,399	$1.50	22d	1	0.30mi
2617 Garland Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,000	$1.17	22d	1	0.30mi
2161 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,649	$1.06	22d	1	0.31mi
2154 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	0.32mi
2168 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.34mi
2150 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	22d	1	0.34mi
2150 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2054	$2,299	$1.12	15d	1	0.35mi
2166 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	15d	1	0.35mi
2148 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.35mi
2139 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,349	$0.90	45d	1	0.36mi
2146 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,299	$1.48	45d	1	0.37mi
2162 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.37mi
2125 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.38mi
2028 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.38mi
2147 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	0.39mi
2131 Kokomo Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	0.40mi
2140 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,999	$1.38	45d	1	0.40mi
2156 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	22d	1	0.40mi
2143 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	45d	1	0.41mi
2154 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	45d	1	0.41mi
2152 Langford Ave Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,660	$1.14	22d	1	0.42mi
2139 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,899	$1.31	22d	1	0.43mi
2130 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	22d	1	0.43mi
2137 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	0.43mi
2148 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.44mi
2133 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,999	$1.29	22d	1	0.44mi
2144 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	15d	1	0.45mi
2127 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,699	$1.10	15d	1	0.45mi
2123 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	0.46mi
2140 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,749	$1.13	45d	1	0.46mi
2138 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.47mi
2134 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,699	$1.09	45d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,950 Active 825 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,950 Active 824 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,950 Active 823 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,950 Active 822 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,950 Active 819 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,950 Active 817 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,950 Active 816 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,950 Active 815 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,950 Active 814 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,950 Active 811 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,950 Active 810 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,950 Active 809 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,950 Active 808 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,950 Active 807 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,950 Active 806 DOM
16. 2024-03-25
    price $225,950 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Our 1,600 square-foot Modern Prairie affordable new home greets you with stunning curb appeal featuring a brick exterior with cedar accents and a grand tower entryway. This thoughtful layout of our 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom open-concept floor plan allows for the most efficient and affordable use of space. The home's kitchen offers an island with bar seating, an enclosed pantry, and separate counter space perfect for a coffee bar. The secluded master bedroom boasts a large walk-in closet and en suite bathroom with a double vanity. Visit our New Home Center to schedule your VIP tour of this brand new home!

17. 2024-03-15
    listed $222,950 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Our 1,600 square-foot Modern Prairie affordable new home greets you with stunning curb appeal featuring a brick exterior with cedar accents and a grand tower entryway. This thoughtful layout of our 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom open-concept floor plan allows for the most efficient and affordable use of space. The home's kitchen offers an island with bar seating, an enclosed pantry, and separate counter space perfect for a coffee bar. The secluded master bedroom boasts a large walk-in closet and en suite bathroom with a double vanity. Visit our New Home Center to schedule your VIP tour of this brand new home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,657
• − Property taxes: −$3,389
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$6,573
• Taxable loss: −$4,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior painting, HVAC system updates, and landscaping improvements. The home's poor condition and lack of recent updates significantly reduce its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Crowdsourced image shows no visible damage, but listing photos suggest a need for repair.
• Major exterior roof — Crowdsourced image shows no visible damage, but listing photos suggest a need for repair.
• Major exterior paint — Crowdsourced image shows no visible damage, but listing photos suggest a need for repair.
• Major interior walls — No interior photos provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of recent maintenance.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC or mechanical systems provided.
• Major landscaping — No landscaping details provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of recent maintenance.
• Major foundation — No photos of the foundation or structure provided.
• Major windows — No photos of windows provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of recent maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior paint — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value.
• Rental HVAC system — A reliable HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and retention.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both interior paint — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both HVAC system — A reliable HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and retention.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Crowdsourced image shows no visible damage, but listing photos suggest a need for repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior roof · Crowdsourced image shows no visible damage, but listing photos suggest a need for repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Crowdsourced image shows no visible damage, but listing photos suggest a need for repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · No interior photos provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of recent maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC or mechanical systems provided.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No landscaping details provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of recent maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · No photos of the foundation or structure provided.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of windows provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of recent maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior paint — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system — A reliable HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and retention. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both interior paint — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A reliable HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and retention. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $225,950 Zillow
• 2024-03-15 Listed $222,950 Zillow