The Creekside Plan · Carlsborg, WA 98382

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 226 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 400 Series / The Creekside N4P44S89 offers a charming and functional layout with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1188 square feet of well-designed space. The open living area flows seamlessly into a modern kitchen, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. A private primary suite provides a peaceful retreat, while the second bedroom adds flexibility. With stylish finishes and a thoughtful design, The Creekside N4P44S89 is a perfect balance of comfort and efficiency.

Key facts

• Listed 225 days

🏗️ New construction. The $199,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $419,450.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greywolf Elementary School (524 students, 50% FRL); Sequim Middle School (568 students, 52% FRL); Sequim Senior High (794 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1061 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.32%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,450
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -52.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Moonshadow Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,157 (-3%)	0mo	$379,950	$328	67
63 Moonshadow Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,157 (-3%)	1mo	$379,950	$328	66
41 Moonshadow Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	1mo	$414,950	$337	64
103 Moonshadow Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,157 (-3%)	3mo	$389,950	$337	64
73 Moonshadow Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	2mo	$419,950	$341	64
32 Moonshadow Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	2mo	$428,950	$348	64
83 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	3mo	$421,000	$342	64
161 Moonshadow Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,157 (-3%)	5mo	$389,950	$337	64
55 Moonshadow Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	3mo	$419,950	$341	63
121 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	4mo	$418,950	$340	62
123 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	5mo	$418,950	$340	62
61 Foggy Valley Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,157 (-3%)	1mo	$391,950	$339	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-144,716
• Equity at exit: $62,541

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.91×
• Total profit: $-224,750
• Equity at exit: $36,266

Cash invested: $117,446 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $406,950 ($311/sqft)
• Median days on market: 226 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98382

• Active inventory: 1061
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,200
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,292/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-1,206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,669

Max offer price $245,012

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-916	-5% $-1,061	+0% $-1,206	+5% $-1,350	+10% $-1,495
Rent	-10% $-1,375	-5% $-1,290	+0% $-1,206	+5% $-1,121	+10% $-1,036
Rate	-1.0pp $-994	-0.5pp $-1,099	base $-1,206	+0.5pp $-1,314	+1.0pp $-1,425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,862
• Closing costs: $12,584
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $199,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $199,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $199,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $199,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $199,000 Active 211 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 210 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 209 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 208 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $199,000 Active 207 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $199,000 Active 206 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 205 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $199,000 Active 204 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 203 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 202 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $199,000 Active 201 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 200 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $199,000 Active 199 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $199,000 Active 198 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 197 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 196 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 195 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 194 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $199,000 Active 193 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 192 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 191 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 190 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 189 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 188 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 187 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $199,000 Active 186 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 185 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 184 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $199,000 Active 183 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $199,000 Active 182 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $199,000 Active 181 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 180 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $199,000 Active 177 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 175 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $199,000 Active 174 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 173 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,496
• − Property taxes: −$6,292
• − Insurance: −$2,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$12,202
• Taxable loss: −$22,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,396
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Creekside Plan is a well-maintained and modern single-family home with a charming and functional layout. It offers a perfect balance of comfort and efficiency, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping enhancement — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-up — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Greywolf Elementary School Middle Sequim Middle School High Sequim Senior High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequim School District
• NCES district ID: 5307830
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,969
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #3312
• State rank: #64 of 291 in WA

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Carlsborg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #20503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsborg, WA
• County: Clallam County · 76,817 people
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,052
• Household income: $74,189
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Clallam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,817 people
• By 2030: 78,177 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 79,795 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 80,890 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 83,933 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 82,141 · +6.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Clallam

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 52.6% · R 44.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+3.4 2016: R+1.6 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.89%
• Current HPI: 181.4372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $199,000 Zillow