5781 Scotland Ave · Gibson, NC 28343

$99,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1957 0.57 ac lot Est $89k · 11% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Small home needs a lot of work, but on a great street with other beautiful homes. Property Sold ''AS IS'' NO EXECPTIONS

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• 1223 garage spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RA; Lot ~0.57 acres (approx. 130 x 190); Subdivision: Gibson; Directions: Main St in Town of Gibson, turn on McColl St, then right on Scotland Ave; house will be on the left

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Unpaved parking areas; 1,223 total parking spaces / garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water and sewer available; Electric service
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a residential single family home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Level lot; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Electric water heater; Laminate flooring; 6 total rooms; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#707 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Scotland County Schools (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #160 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sycamore Lane Primary (420 students, 99% FRL); Carver Middle (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 659 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 72% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Scotland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Scotland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,460
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4740 Main St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,425 (+12%)	11mo	$100,000	$70	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $22,001
• Equity at exit: $38,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $63,701
• Equity at exit: $55,354

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28343

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $808

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    price $99,500
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $1,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$341
• After-tax cash flow: $2,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scotland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,203
• Composite: 20.66/100
• National rank: #8536
• State rank: #160 of 178 in NC

Livability — Gibson

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #25641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 1,795

Population outlook (Scotland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,331 people
• By 2030: 32,017 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 29,290 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 26,554 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 19,857 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 13,851 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 33% Native American 15% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Welsh 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.9) · D 46.2% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -6.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.9 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+7.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Current HPI: 133.9663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $99,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $109,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $899 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.