91 Drew Ln · Port Ludlow, WA 98365

$525,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1980 0.42 ac lot $219/sqft · 17% below area Est $633k · 17% under $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked in the heart of Port Ludlow’s village in the woods by the bay, this sturdy 1980s home offers a rare blend of space, flexibility and coastal Northwest living just across the road from the marina and waterfront lifestyle amenities. Inside, a vaulted cedar ceiling anchors the main living room, where a floor-to-ceiling wood-burning fireplace framed in local Mats Mats basalt rock creates a warm and inviting focal point. Filtered views of Port Ludlow Bay bring in soft natural light, while the home’s one-level living with a daylight basement provides ideal separation for multi-generational living, guests, or a dedicated home office setup. The lower level offers its own living ar

Key facts

• Full bath
• Daylight basement
• One level living

Tags

• VAULTED CEDAR CEILING
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• DAYLIGHT BASEMENT
• FULL BATH
• NORTH BEACH CLUBHOUSE
• GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $446k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $446k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Port Ludlow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#458 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chimacum School District (rural): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #157 of 291 in WA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 147 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $446,400 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $632,989
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -17.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Rainier Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,500 (+4%)	12mo	$631,000	$252	67
657 Rainier Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,444 (+2%)	22mo	$858,000	$351	62
61 Olympic Ln	0.43mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,200 (-8%)	5mo	$525,650	$239	53
323 Machias Loop	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (-13%)	10mo	$665,000	$317	52
15 Goliah Ln	0.53mi	2/2.0	2,498 (+4%)	21mo	$599,000	$240	51
44 Forester Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,196 (-8%)	0mo	$580,000	$264	48
160 Resolute Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,551 (+6%)	15mo	$649,000	$254	48
350 Anchor Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,201 (-8%)	9mo	$825,000	$375	43
636 Montgomery Ln	0.42mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,106 (-12%)	14mo	$695,000	$330	41
11 Navigator Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,097 (-13%)	18mo	$639,000	$305	29
72 Sayward Ln	0.65mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,746 (+14%)	15mo	$639,000	$233	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-72,064
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-46,339
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98365

• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$937
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,203

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $503	-5% $355	+0% $206	+5% $58	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $30	+0% $206	+5% $382	+10% $559
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $340	base $206	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72 Harms Ln Unit 1531029P Port Ludlow, WA	3.0	2.5	3315	$4,464	$1.35	14d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $525,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $525,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $525,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $525,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $525,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $540,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,330 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,145 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,815/yr (+$151/mo · 54.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,285
• − Management: −$4,285
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,558
• After-tax cash flow: $4,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chimacum School District
• NCES district ID: 5301290
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,121
• Composite: 43.4/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #157 of 291 in WA

Livability — Port Ludlow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #18720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Ludlow, WA
• City population: 5,178
• Population (ZIP): 5,178

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,415 people
• By 2030: 31,568 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 30,911 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 29,927 · -4.7%
• By 2075: 28,489 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 26,483 · -15.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 6% Portuguese 5%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.3) · D 71.0% · R 25.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.7pp toward D · 2008: 34.6pp · 2024: 45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.3 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+32.7 2012: D+31.4 2008: D+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.65%
• Current HPI: 171.3251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $540,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,330 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.