16945 Glenheath · Conroe, TX 77316

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 221 Days on market

Built 2021 2,100 sqft lot $164/sqft · 12% below area Est $176k · 12% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• UPGRADED GRANITE COUNTERS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,009
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -11.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16938 W Lynbrook St	0.17mi	3/2.0	940 (-1%)	5mo	$157,900	$168	87
16725 E Hammon	0.21mi	3/2.0	958 (+1%)	4mo	$169,900	$177	85
16900 West Juneau	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+7%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	83
241 Ridgeside	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+7%)	4mo	$160,000	$158	77
16965 W Hammon	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+12%)	1mo	$180,000	$169	76
16891 W Dounreay St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+9%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	76
16930 W Lynbrook St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+9%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	74
16902 W Alderson	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+12%)	2mo	$179,900	$170	67
16729 E Hammon	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+13%)	4mo	$177,900	$166	65
16942 W Lynbrook St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	830 (-12%)	2mo	$137,900	$166	65
16934 W Lynbrook St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	830 (-12%)	4mo	$140,000	$169	62
822 Omeara	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	837 (-12%)	3mo	$156,900	$187	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,887
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,975
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $272	+0% $228	+5% $184	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $161	+0% $228	+5% $295	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $267	base $228	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	0.08mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.14mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	0.48mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 205 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 204 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 203 DOM
15. 2026-03-01
    price $155,000 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

16. 2026-02-20
    status Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

17. 2026-02-08
    historical Active Under Contract 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

18. 2026-02-02
    listed $1,500
19. 2026-01-31
    price $163,000 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

20. 2026-01-31
    price $161,000 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

21. 2026-01-31
    status Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

22. 2025-12-09
    historical Active Under Contract 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

23. 2025-12-03
    status Pending 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

24. 2025-11-26
    status Pending 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

25. 2025-11-21
    historical $1,750
26. 2025-11-08
    status Pending 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

27. 2025-10-31
    status Pending 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

28. 2025-10-17
    listed $1,750
29. 2025-10-14
    listed $167,000 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Adorable cozy single story home just minutes from Beautiful Lake Conroe. Large kitchen with upgraded granite counters, tile backsplash, and appliances. Open floor plan with large family room w pocket doors that could be utilized as a third bedroom. Primary bedroom is spacious and has walk-in closet with ensuite bathroom with tub-shower combo, and double sinks. Secondary bathroom with shower has pocket door access. Backyard has a nice deck to enjoy your morning coffee. Just minutes to shopping and dining! Size of rooms are approximate.

30. 2025-03-02
    historical
31. 2024-12-07
    price $149,900
32. 2024-10-24
    listed $154,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $322
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$77
• After-tax cash flow: $2,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $163,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $161,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Rental Removed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $167,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-07 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Listed $154,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+35.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,514 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.