616 E 5th St · Bethlehem, PA 18015

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 Good condition 3,600 sqft lot Est $249k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home, priced to sell. An upcoming and growing area with so much going on, an abundance of restaurants, Wind Creek casino, Lehigh U, all within a very short walking distance. . Fully renovated, new windows in all bedrooms, living and dinning rooms. freshly painted, new flooring, new 24 BTU mini split, all rooms equipped with updated ceiling fans, reconstructed 2 car detached garage with new roof and more.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• New flooring
• New windows

Tags

• ABUNDANCE OF RESTAURANTS
• SHORT WALKING DISTANCE
• FULLY RENOVATED
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($152/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Donegan El Sch (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,259 of 1,518 statewide, top 84%, 449 students, 90% FRL); Broughal Ms (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #447 of 512 statewide, top 88%, 500 students, 88% FRL); Freedom Hs (math 49% / reading 5%, grade F, #365 of 437 statewide, top 85%, 1,753 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 43% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bethlehem Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,210 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,378
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
616 E 5th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,401 (0%)	0mo	$249,900	$178	100
412 Atlantic St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,337 (-5%)	1mo	$245,000	$183	83
630 Pierce St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,247 (-11%)	5mo	$192,500	$154	69
1008 E 3rd St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,458 (+4%)	8mo	$260,000	$178	66
815 Laufer St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,264 (-10%)	6mo	$159,550	$126	65
649 Shields St	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,258 (-10%)	4mo	$204,900	$163	61
208 Hobart St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,313 (-6%)	1mo	$140,000	$107	60
1229 E 3rd St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,430 (+2%)	7mo	$200,000	$140	59
1252 E 4th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-9%)	0mo	$245,000	$191	54
305 W 8th St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-8%)	1mo	$255,000	$198	42
11 W 2nd St #139	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,212 (-14%)	2mo	$295,000	$243	41
11 W 2nd St #210	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-13%)	8mo	$272,000	$222	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,004
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $18,218
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18015

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $99	+0% $13	+5% $-74	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-74	+0% $13	+5% $100	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $76	base $13	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
612 E 5th St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,500	$1.38	45d	1	0.03mi
436 Pierce St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1452	$2,250	$1.55	4d	1	0.04mi
740 Laufer St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	910	$1,650	$1.81	16d	1	0.13mi
610 E 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$3,008	$3.09	4d	8	0.13mi
311 E 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1189	$2,330	$1.96	4d	3	0.28mi
938 E 4th St #401 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,150	$2.32	45d	1	0.30mi
938 E 4th St Unit 201 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	982	$2,350	$2.39	45d	1	0.30mi
314 State St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,650	$1.60	16d	1	0.31mi
824 E 8th St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.5	952	$1,400	$1.47	45d	1	0.40mi
1113 E 4th St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	0.41mi
1122 E 4th St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.0	1706	$1,800	$1.06	16d	1	0.42mi
1201 E 4th St Unit 4 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	0.56mi
11 W 2nd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,550	$1.57	25d	4	0.56mi
1209 Mechanic St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1003	$2,000	$1.99	23d	1	0.57mi
239 E Church St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,950	$1.71	25d	1	0.62mi
417 Linden St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1699	$2,450	$1.44	4d	1	0.63mi
1236 E 7th St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1424	$2,350	$1.65	4d	1	0.65mi
1275 E 4th St Unit 202 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,950	$1.59	25d	1	0.73mi
1306 E 4th St #3 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	45d	1	0.75mi
42 E Wall St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.0	1474	$2,550	$1.73	25d	1	0.75mi
521 Hess St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	23d	1	0.79mi
30 E Market St Apt 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	45d	1	0.82mi
406 W 9th St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1152	$2,100	$1.82	23d	1	0.86mi
541 Jischke St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	0.92mi
650 E North St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,350	$2.51	16d	7	0.97mi
517 Seneca St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	1.00mi
540 Seneca St Apt 2 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,520	$1.60	4d	1	1.00mi
708 Cherokee St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,500	$2.08	45d	1	1.01mi
746 Linden St Unit 2 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,975	$1.96	45d	1	1.01mi
316 E Union Blvd Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1460	$2,145	$1.47	45d	1	1.02mi
229 E Union Blvd Unit 1st Floor Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,675	$1.68	4d	1	1.05mi
229 E Union Blvd Unit 2nd Floor Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	982	$1,595	$1.62	4d	1	1.05mi
802 Elm St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.5	1520	$2,800	$1.84	23d	1	1.05mi
320 2nd Ave Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	4d	1	1.06mi
822 Elm St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1406	$2,195	$1.56	16d	1	1.08mi
56 W North St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1486	$2,400	$1.62	16d	1	1.10mi
122 E Goepp St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1137	$1,895	$1.67	4d	1	1.13mi
50 W Garrison St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	4d	1	1.14mi
129 E Goepp St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.0	1648	$2,600	$1.58	4d	1	1.15mi
565 W Lehigh St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,950	$2.23	45d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2026-02-05
   historical
4. 2026-01-30
   price $269,900
5. 2025-12-15
   listed $279,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $1,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully renovated townhouse is move-in ready with new windows, flooring, and appliances. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for rental or resale appreciation.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fence maintenance — Improving curb appeal and increasing property value
• Both Painting exterior walls — Enhancing curb appeal and increasing property value
• Both Landscaping and fence maintenance — Improving curb appeal and increasing property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fence maintenance — Improving curb appeal and increasing property value ↑
• Both Painting exterior walls — Enhancing curb appeal and increasing property value ↑
• Both Landscaping and fence maintenance — Improving curb appeal and increasing property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,124
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5068
• State rank: #342 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bethlehem

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #1122

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethlehem, PA
• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• City population: 129,661
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,852
• Household income: $60,800
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Danish 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.95%
• Current HPI: 277.4721
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $249,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $269,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $279,900 GLVRMLS